Deep Dive Analysis
Bittensor (TAO)
2026-10-10 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
282.17
282.17
52W HIGH
497.77
497.77
DRAWDOWN
-43.3%
-43.3%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 5 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
TAO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 192.69
Low: 152.22
Now: 282.17
Low: 152.22
Now: 282.17
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.6 | ADX (14) | 17.9 |
| 50d MA | 262.99 | 200d MA | 246.92 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 217.85 | Resistance | 321.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.46%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TAO | +7.0% | +38.4% | +11.8% | +46.4% |
| BTC | +1.9% | +27.5% | +16.0% | +7.5% |
| ETH | -5.3% | +30.1% | +24.4% | +9.9% |
| SOL | -1.1% | +44.6% | +35.4% | +8.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
34,632
RETURN
-1.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-26.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TAO | -1.1% | +9.2% | -26.1% | 24 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TAO)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +46.4% | 38,237 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +25.5% | 43,928 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +23.2% | 43,110 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +23.6% | 43,260 |
TAO Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 262.66 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 311.00 (10.2%) |
| Target 2 | 331.00 (17.3%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 261.64 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 318.86 | +21.9% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 314.66 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 287.29 | -8.7% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 296.28 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 317.78 | +7.3% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 321.21 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 319.65 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 308.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 300.57 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 300.83 | |
| END | SELL | 282.17 | -6.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-10 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
43% off the high and still above the 200d, thats the only chart that matters here. waiting for the 321 resistance test before adding anything
the 50d at 262 is doing all the heavy lifting lol. one red week and this flips right back to stage 1
262 is also where the last bounce started, so the 50d and structural support line up. thats the add zone if you buy the hold thesis
262 lining up with the 50d is the one clean level here. if it loses that the hold thesis is dead and everyone in the thread knows it
add zone assumes there is still an add budget left after holding from 400 something lol
lol the 400 club does not have an add budget, they have a prayer. new money gets the actual trade here and everyone knows it
agree on 262 lining up with the 50d, but the add only works if the rejection at 321 comes on declining volume. otherwise chop eats both tranches
the declining volume rejection at 321 is doing a lot of heavy lifting for a plan that adds at 262. if 321 breaks on real volume you ride to 360 without a fill
if 321 breaks on real volume the 262 add never fills and the plan quietly becomes a breakout plan. the engine just never writes that part down
321 is the supply zone from the runup, if that breaks the stage 2 label finally earns itself. until then its chop between 262 and the 200d
the 321 test only matters with volume behind it, a low float rejection up there just extends the chop. id want to see the 200d hold on a red tape day before trusting any stage 2 label
agreed on the red day test, stage 2 labels get earned on down days, never on green ones. 262 holding with real volume would change my mind on the add
The 321 level is the whole trade, agreed. Even a clean breakout there only puts TAO near 360, still miles from the 497 high. Sizing accordingly.
-43% from 497 and they call it Stage 2 uptrend. cool story, my entry says otherwise lol
tao_baggage, stage 2 was never about your entry. price above the 200d after a 43 percent haircut is literally the definition, annoying as that is
your entry is not a technical level lol. but agree the stage 2 label hides how violent the ride down from 497 actually was
holding TAO under 300 has been the only correct move for months. the subnet emissions keep the sell pressure sticky
HOLD at 282 makes sense to me. Halving dynamics for TAO are still underappreciated by most retail.
RSI 49.6 with ADX under 18, textbook no edge. HOLD is the only sane call here
reply to greta, rsi 49.6 with adx 18 means the trend hasnt even started. hold is fine but the boring part is the point
262 gets tested, everyone relearns what a 43 percent haircut feels like, then we do this thread again. TAO is a patience subscription
paying the patience subscription since 497, can confirm the auto renew never stops lol
since 497 buddy, i stopped even checking the chart some weeks. the 262 tranche will come or it wont lol
price at 282 with the add zone at 251-262 means the plan is 90% waiting by design. HOLD is the only honest label this engine could print here
MACD bearish while golden cross and a rising 50d hold is the system arguing with itself. wait is correct but call it indecision, not edge
HOLD label with the add zone 30 dollars below price is a subscription to checking the chart at 3am. been subscribed since 497