Deep Dive Analysis
Worldcoin (WLD)
2026-10-11 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.55
0.55
52W HIGH
4.17
4.17
DRAWDOWN
-86.9%
-86.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (56.5), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 29.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.27)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
WLD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.39
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.55
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.55
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 56.5 | ADX (14) | 29.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.45 | 200d MA | 0.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.36 | Resistance | 0.62 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.78%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLD | +25.3% | +74.5% | +42.8% | +39.1% |
| BTC | +2.3% | +28.0% | +24.4% | +5.5% |
| ETH | -5.5% | +30.9% | +34.5% | +6.6% |
| SOL | -1.7% | +43.3% | +47.3% | +4.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
32,807
RETURN
+118.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLD | +118.7% | -49.9% | -40.2% | 42 | 52% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +39.1% | 8,148 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +17.4% | 17,609 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +27.9% | 19,191 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +28.1% | 19,210 |
WLD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.45 (-17.6%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (83.2%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (83.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.43 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 0.37 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 0.40 | +7.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.41 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.42 | +5.6% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.45 | -5.4% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| END | SELL | 0.55 | +31.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-11 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
A BUY call after an 87 percent drawdown from 4.17 is bold. World App daily users would have to keep climbing for me to trust the reversal
ADX 29 with OBV rising and volume ratio 1.27, this looks like real accumulation to me. Took a starter position above 0.50.
agree but that 8.8 percent daily ATR is brutal, half size it. one red candle puts you back under the 50d
Half sizing is right. Laddered in at 0.51 and 0.55 with a stop under 0.48, the drawdown math finally works at these levels
stop under 0.48 makes sense with that ATR, but the volume shelf sits closer to 0.46. WLD loves a wick into stops before continuation, might give it the full range
0.46 shelf makes sense until you remember the last wick went to 0.44 and back in one candle. id just widen the stop and cut size instead of hunting the exact bottom
cutting size instead of hunting the bottom is the whole game at this ATR. stop at 0.45 and size it like a coin flip, sleeping fine
fair, but widening the stop on a name with 8.8 percent daily ATR means your risk per share basically doubles. cutting size is doing all the work in that trade lol
half size is still generous with an 8.8 percent daily ATR tbh. quarter position and add above 0.62 if it actually clears
quarter position on an 8.8 percent ATR is a rounding error. half size with a hard stop under 0.45 is the cleaner risk
half size with a 0.45 stop is still four percent risk on an 8.8 atr. its fine but nobody survives being wrong twice in a row
the backtest itself drew down 40 percent on the way to 118. trend following always looks free until you live inside that drawdown for six months
40 percent drawdown to make 118 is the honest math people skip. the rating is fine, the stomach requirement is the real entry fee
dosecurve correct on the math, two consecutive stops on an 8.8 atr is -8 percent on the plan. the entry tranching matters more than the rating here
this. everyone models one stop, nobody models the losing streak. the plan survives on paper and dies on the third red entry in a row
elias this. everyone argues 0.45 vs 0.46 on the stop and ignores that the plan risks 4 percent per attempt. tranche or die
Still 87 percent below the 4.17 high. Every uptrend looks convincing on a 3 month window, 0.62 resistance is the real test
0.62 isnt just resistance, its where the last lower high printed. if that goes this actually becomes a trend
world app user count is the only thing that turned since the low. if DAUs flatten before 0.62 breaks this is a dead cat with a good volume ratio
world app DAUs are verifiable, the onchain bot filter actually works. its the one metric here you cant fake
agree, world app dau is the whole trade, everything else is noise. the second that curve flattens the 0.62 talk is meaningless
0.45 is the 50d MA and also where the sept 8 stop sat. lose that level and the DAU argument buys you nothing, its the line in the sand for me
lars the 0.62 level is also the last lower high, so its trend structure AND resistance in one. clearing it on a volume ratio above 1.2 would flip the whole chart
4.17 was launch froth with a giant airdrop overhang. the 0.50 base is a different regime, 0.62 is still the judge
world app DAUs is the right metric to anchor on but orb verification growth is what pays for it. the buy thesis survives only as long as new verified users keep showing up weekly
the drawdown column never makes the headline. 118 total with a 40 percent valley in the middle is only tradeable if you sized it like a coin flip from day one