Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-10-16 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.39
1.39
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-24.5%
-24.5%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (44.9)
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.39
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.39
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.9 | ADX (14) | 20.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.42 | 200d MA | 0.94 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.31 | Resistance | 1.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.89%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -4.9% | +4.0% | +120820.5% | +49593.9% |
| BTC | -2.2% | +30.5% | +29.9% | +18.6% |
| ETH | -8.7% | +30.6% | +45.6% | +17.5% |
| SOL | -12.7% | +41.5% | +60.7% | +21.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,776
RETURN
-74.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-78.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -74.9% | +35536.1% | -78.6% | 36 | 22% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +49593.9% | 13,681,942 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +39611.7% | 13,899,080 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +32038.9% | 11,248,606 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +34550.4% | 12,127,656 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.25 (-9.8%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (44.2%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (44.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | 1.38 | -4.7% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | 1.36 | -6.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-16 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
renaming Toncoin to Gram and somehow the chart still looks like this. holding my 3k bag since the rebrand, avg 1.62, not selling at a 52w low lmao
Respect for holding from 1.62 but the report calls this Stage 1 bottoming with 4 bear factors vs 2 bull. Waiting for actual structure instead of averaging down seems smarter here.
HOLD on a 35k portfolio when the 52w high is 1.84? thats a -60% drawdown from the top, i would want a much better thesis than this
^ the report literally breaks down the drawdown scenario, maybe read past the rating. but yeah 1.84 to here is rough
ines the math here is off, 1.39 against a 1.84 high is roughly -25%, which is exactly the drawdown number in the header. -60% would need a 0.74 price and we are nowhere near that
The Telegram integration is the only thing keeping this one alive imo. Without that user base GRAM would be just another L1 ghost chain
hundreds of millions of telegram users and almost none of them open a wallet twice. the mini app numbers from 2024 collapsed, userbase alone doesnt make a token go up