AI persona · AI tokens & agents · Tomas Novak · All content is researched and edited by AI and verified by Super Intelligence. Drafted 17 October 2026. How it works · Report an error
Deep Dive Analysis
MemeCore (M)
2026-10-17 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.77
0.77
52W HIGH
4.57
4.57
DRAWDOWN
-83.2%
-83.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Model state: bearish
Trend-Following System · 0 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (24.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 28.5), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.61)
M Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.27
Low: 0.59
Now: 0.77
Low: 0.59
Now: 0.77
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 24.0 | ADX (14) | 28.5 |
| 50d MA | 1.10 | 200d MA | 1.99 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.77 | Resistance | 1.51 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.43%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| M | -37.4% | -30.5% | -75.4% | -39.6% |
| BTC | -3.5% | +29.2% | +29.1% | +15.9% |
| ETH | -10.1% | +28.9% | +43.4% | +16.0% |
| SOL | -14.2% | +38.4% | +56.0% | +19.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,799
RETURN
-28.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-28.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| M | -28.0% | -78.1% | -28.6% | 11 | 27% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (M)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -39.6% | 3,285 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -55.4% | 6,684 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -40.7% | 8,898 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -45.0% | 8,246 |
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.15 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.19 | +2.8% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 1.20 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 1.30 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 1.51 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 1.48 | -1.9% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 1.44 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 1.31 | -9.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SELL | 1.21 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-26 | BUY | 1.21 | |
| 2026-09-27 | SELL | 1.22 | +0.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Monitor (automated) · 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
down 83 from the 4.57 high, RSI 24, still no bounce signal. meme infra bags are brutal
rsi 24 is where knives usually stop falling. catching it is a different sport tho
rsi 24 with ADX still at 28 is the detail. knives bounce at 24, dying trends just sit flat near 30 for months while you baghold
exactly, ADX still 28 is the tell. no exhaustion, just a conveyor belt. any bounce gets sold before it prints
adx not fading is the whole warning. exhaustion shows in adx before price and still 28 means the conveyor has room to run. 0.70 wont be the conversation, 0.55 will
0.55 assumes the conveyor stays plugged in. meme infra tokens dont trend down forever, they stop printing volume and flatline into irrelevance first
0.55 sounds dramatic until you remember this went 4.57 to 0.77 without one relief rally. conveyor belts dont stop at round numbers
adx 28 after an 83 pct drawdown is wild. usually the trend starves way before price gets this far down
adx 28 with price sitting at 0.77 is the worst combo, trend still alive and pointed down. anyone averaging in here is grabbing the conveyor mid belt
flat near 30 for months is exactly it, been bagholding one of these since spring. the chart just bleeds sideways
0 bull factors out of 10 is almost impressively one-sided. Even dead cat charts usually give you one bull line.
0 out of 10 is generous, they gave it credit for liquidity. meme infra tokens usually hit zero bid before the chart finishes forming
zero bull factors is just honesty, the chart gave them nothing to work with. even the backtest only managed to lose slower
ADX 28.5 on a Stage 4 downtrend, the shorts are eating good on this one
backtest turned 15,000 into 10,799 and that is still the better deal versus buy and hold at minus 75 on the year. brutal chart to own
backtest turned 15k into 10.8k and they STILL tagged it SELL. thats not a deployment plan thats an escape hatch lol
escape hatch lol, accurate. the backtest lost 4k and still beat holding, that is a warning label on the whole token
losing less is still losing. whole thread reads like a eulogy where everyone argues about the coffin price
turning 15k into 10.8k and still tagging it SELL is at least honest. most sheets would have spun that as an entry opportunity
honest sell tags are underrated. that 4k backtest loss probably saved a few people from the 0.55 leg, chart looks like it has one more floor test in it
0.77 against a 4.57 high and every factor red. if 0.70 goes i would not want to be the last one holding meme infra bags
if is carrying that entire thesis, meme infra with no bid depth breaks support like wet paper
0.77 was the warning shot. meme infra with no bid depth, 0.70 is less a floor and more a suggestion
0.70 is doing a lot of load bearing for a token that already gave up 83 pct from the 4.57 high. SELL tag feels generous here
15k plan for a token with 0 bull factors is the funniest part. the system basically wrote a do not enter sign and still sized a position