Deep Dive Analysis
Provenance Blockchain (HASH)
2026-10-21 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-77.7%
-77.7%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, MACD+, RSI healthy (58.1), breakout above upper band, vol 8.25x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 3.45)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high
HASH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.02
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 58.1 | ADX (14) | 10.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.31%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HASH | +22.9% | -4.3% | -20.1% | -55.8% |
| BTC | +1.2% | +22.1% | +33.1% | +27.7% |
| ETH | -7.0% | +10.9% | +50.0% | +28.3% |
| SOL | -8.7% | +26.2% | +61.4% | +37.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,058
RETURN
+0.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HASH | +0.4% | -25.7% | 0.0% | 1 | 100% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HASH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -55.8% | 11,146 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -10.7% | 13,400 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.7% | 14,290 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -6.8% | 13,974 |
HASH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-23.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.93) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-21 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
8.25x volume on an up day after a -77.7% drawdown and the verdict is WAIT? breakout above the upper band says otherwise imo
disagree, 8.25x vol on a 0.01 coin is exactly how fakeouts look. needs a daily close above the band not one candle
obv accumulation + vol ratio 3.45 backs him up, someone big is quietly loading. i aint touching stage 3 tho
breakout off a -77% base on 8x volume is usually one whale exiting into strength. wait for the retest before calling the upper band broken
77% under water and still HOLD, respect to whoever actually follows this plan. i dumped my HASH bag in august and honestly the 0.19 volume spike would have stopped me out anyway
the august volume spike stopping you out was the correct signal. holding through a 77% drawdown because a plan says so is just sunk cost with a spreadsheet
Holding HASH through a 77% drawdown takes a stronger hand than mine. A 6/4 bull count is the most optimism this chart has shown in a year though.
HOLD on HASH after lump sum lost 55.8%? The DCA 6 buys column at -4.7% is carrying this whole analysis. And a single backtest trade with 100% win rate is not evidence of anything.
the backtest gripe is fair but -4.7% DCA vs -55.8% lump sum is kind of the whole point of the table no? still not buying stage 3 tho lol
R:R of 0.93 with both targets listed at 0.00 is a strange way of admitting there is no upside case. Style says Momentum but the 50/200d crossover clearly disagrees with the HOLD label.
The -23.7% stop on a 0.01 token is slippage roulette. Anything that thin gaps straight through your exit. 25% position size here is braver than the writeup suggests.