Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-10-22 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
4.92
4.92
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-40.3%
-40.3%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 37.8)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.02
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.92
Low: 0.86
Now: 4.92
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.9 | ADX (14) | 37.8 |
| 50d MA | 4.12 | 200d MA | 2.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 4.15 | Resistance | 5.96 |
| ATR Volatility | 10.01%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | +2.4% | +178.5% | +131.2% | +381.1% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +12.2% | +27.2% | +19.0% |
| ETH | -10.9% | +3.6% | +43.5% | +17.7% |
| SOL | -12.2% | +18.6% | +50.9% | +23.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,592
RETURN
-16.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-60.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -16.1% | +46.6% | -60.2% | 52 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +381.1% | 33,518 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +190.1% | 43,514 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +213.7% | 47,060 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +191.2% | 43,676 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 3.94 (-20.0%) |
| Target 1 | 6.00 (21.9%) |
| Target 2 | 7.00 (42.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 1.97 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 3.76 | +91.4% |
| 2026-09-28 | BUY | 4.82 | |
| END | SELL | 4.92 | +2.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-22 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
381% in a year and somehow the 2y backtest is -16%? tells you how brutal the early chop was. holding my runner from 2.40 anyway, stop at 3.94 feels sane.
yeah that May to June stretch, +13% one week then -22% right after. i got chopped out twice on the same move. ADX at 37 now though, this leg feels different.
4.92 with resistance way up at 5.96 and RSI barely 52, thats a lot of room before anything gets overheated. nibbling in two tranches like the plan says.
+381% in a year and the 50d is still rising. the part that gets me is ADX 37.8, thats a real trend not chop. still mad i ignored NEAR at 1.02
Same, I watched it sit under a dollar and talked myself out of it. Now the question is buying at 4.92 with support at 4.15 or waiting for a touch of the 50d around 4.12.
agreed on ADX 37.8 being real, but RSI 52 with resistance at 5.96 means the easy stretch from 1.02 is long gone. tranche it like the plan says instead of lumping in at 4.92
deployment plan calls for tranches and everyone in here is still debating lump sum at 4.92. the 50d at 4.12 is the line, either it holds or the thesis is dead
That September signal, +91.4% in a month, looks suspiciously clean. Backtested logs always look like this. Live performance is usually half of it.
backtested or not, +91.4% while the 2y return is still negative means timing did all the work. i would paper trade it a month before trusting entries
fair skepticism but the log also shows the -22.2% june loss, it lists the losers too. more honest than most signal sellers lol
the june -22.2% row is why i give this log some credit. systems that only show winners are the fake ones. still sizing small regardless, one bad chop month can erase a quarter
entry 4.92, stop 3.94, resistance 5.96. thats close to 1:1 not 2:1, so the edge really depends on the uptrend holding above the 50d at 4.12. fine setup, wrong risk math if you size it big
exactly, at 1:1 you are one fakeout below 4.15 from giving back a whole tranche. half size until it reclaims 5.20 imo