Deep Dive Analysis
Pump.fun (PUMP)
2026-10-25 09:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.01
0.01
DRAWDOWN
-35.4%
-35.4%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (41.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.73)
PUMP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.0 | ADX (14) | 16.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.0%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PUMP | -35.8% | -19.9% | +177.8% | +89.0% |
| BTC | -7.4% | +3.0% | +22.1% | +16.3% |
| ETH | -14.8% | -5.8% | +29.7% | +16.2% |
| SOL | -17.3% | +5.3% | +36.9% | +16.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
71,144
RETURN
+103.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-34.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PUMP | +103.3% | +124.8% | -34.8% | 16 | 62% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PUMP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +89.0% | 78,669 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +107.8% | 72,746 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +90.2% | 66,576 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +87.1% | 65,500 |
PUMP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-12.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +11.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +74.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-25 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
oliver schmidt says WAIT on pump and still shows the -6.3% chop from the 23rd. system is honest at least, most youtubers would hide that trade
that minus 6.3 percent print on the 23rd is why i trust these writeups. anyone can show green backtests
showing the minus 6.3 print is why these beat youtube signals. accountability in a backtest is rarer than alpha
Stage 1 bottoming with RSI at 41 and the call is still HOLD. Fine, but a -35.4% drawdown says wait for the 50d reclaim before touching this.
the 50d is the whole problem tho, price is under it. reclaim or nothing ^
reclaim or nothing crew is why everyone misses stage 1 entries. i scalped the last two chops under the 50d just fine, size down instead of sitting out
scalping under the 50d works until it doesnt. one distribution day and your size-down becomes stop-out city
scalping under the 50d with size down works until a distribution day turns three red candles into a gap down. stage 1 bottoms owe you nothing at your exit price
size-down under the 50d is fine until that distribution day you mentioned. been stopped out on exactly this setup twice this month, learned it the expensive way
two chops is a sample size of two lol. i tried the same on PUMP, one distribution day ate the whole month
the 50d reclaim crew keeps being right on these stage 1 names. boring wins
WAIT on PUMP feels generous with rsi 41 under the 50d. the platform prints, the token yawns, story of 2026 launch tokens
hold verdict on PUMP while the platform keeps tweaking fees and the token has no bid narrative. deployment plan math is fine, the asset is the question
no bid narrative is it. pump.fun can print revenue all day, the token only moves when fee tweaks become buybacks
revenue without a bid narrative is the definition of a platform token. until fees become buybacks the chart is weather
fees to buybacks is the only bridge that matters. until then PUMP is a revenue sheet with a token attached
fees to buybacks again. revenue keeps printing and the token still sits under the 50d. at some point that gap is a choice, not a roadmap
the gap only closes when buybacks actually ship. every week of rumor is another week the revenue story leaks out of the token
exactly, and the buyback rumor has been weeks away since summer. the 35k would have done more in t bills while we wait
fee tweaks becoming buybacks is the entire token thesis. revenue prints alone have moved PUMP exactly nowhere twice this year, the market already voted on that
RSI 41, stage 1, price under the 50d. every pump chart right now is a shrug, wait is the only honest verdict
Agreed on the wait call. Stage 1 with RSI 41 and that -6.3% print from the 23rd is a range, so alerts at the range edges beat forcing a position.
shrug charts everywhere, not just PUMP. RSI 41 under a 50d with a -35 drawdown is the market saying come back later
35k parked on a WAIT verdict is just dry powder with a label. oliver deserves credit for not forcing a buy on a -6.3% week
dry powder with a label is still a decision. the alternative is forcing 35k into a -35% drawdown because the calendar said deploy. alerts at the range edges do the same job for free
credit where due, forcing a buy on a -6.3 week to look active is how portfolios die. boring is a feature in a chop
oliver parking 35k again while fees to buybacks stays a rumor. third WAIT in a row on PUMP, at some point the deployment plan is just a savings account with a newsletter
fourth WAIT incoming then. the deployment plan format only works if the deploy part ever happens