Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-11-02 09:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.86
0.86
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-89.7%
-89.7%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, MACD-, RSI weak (38.7), far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 25.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.53)
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.88
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.86
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.86
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.7 | ADX (14) | 25.8 |
| 50d MA | 1.01 | 200d MA | 0.87 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.78 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.11%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | -21.2% | +26.7% | +15.5% | -1.8% |
| BTC | -4.6% | -0.7% | +27.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -6.4% | -7.2% | +41.3% | +23.5% |
| SOL | -10.6% | -8.4% | +38.8% | +19.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
32,694
RETURN
-6.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -6.6% | -70.7% | -25.5% | 48 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -1.8% | 20,987 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -12.0% | 30,795 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.1% | 31,807 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.8% | 31,562 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.72 (-16.2%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (15.7%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (15.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | 0.98 | -8.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-11-02 09:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
lump sum row says 20,987 today on 35k deployed. thats a 40% haircut, not the 1.8% the table claims. sloppy math on a SELL call is not a great look
-89.7% from the 52w high and the system still says do not deploy. sometimes the best trade is the one you skip
held mine since the 5 dollar days, at 0.86 im not selling to a system that missed the entire top. FIL is a storage bet, not a one week chart
Same conclusion I reached. My stop would sit right under that 0.78 support anyway, too tight for the 8% daily ATR
lump sum from 1y ago showing -1.8% but the table says value today 20,987 on 35k… thats way more than a 1.8% loss, someone check the math
good catch, also weird that targets 1 and 2 are both 1.00. anyway the backtest winning 48% of 48 trades and still losing 6.6% tells you the fees eat you alive
48 trades at 48% win rate and the edge is gone before fees even show up. with 8% daily ATR on FIL you get wicked out of anything you try anyway