Deep Dive Analysis
Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
2026-11-02 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.62
0.62
52W HIGH
1.19
1.19
DRAWDOWN
-47.7%
-47.7%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (36.2), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.47)
AERO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.37
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.62
Low: 0.30
Now: 0.62
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.2 | ADX (14) | 22.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.76 | 200d MA | 0.53 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.62 | Resistance | 0.94 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.75%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AERO | -29.1% | +31.5% | +21.4% | +66.2% |
| BTC | -4.6% | -0.7% | +27.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -6.4% | -7.2% | +41.3% | +23.5% |
| SOL | -10.6% | -8.4% | +38.8% | +19.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,856
RETURN
+45.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-27.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AERO | +45.7% | +34.2% | -27.5% | 11 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AERO)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +66.2% | 20,125 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +26.3% | 18,944 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +22.3% | 18,339 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +25.7% | 18,851 |
AERO Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.56 (-9.5%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (60.9%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (60.9%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-06-26 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-06-27 | SELL | 0.47 | -0.7% |
| 2026-06-28 | BUY | 0.46 | |
| 2026-06-29 | SELL | 0.48 | +4.2% |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.52 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.56 | +8.2% |
| 2026-07-05 | BUY | 0.58 | |
| 2026-07-06 | SELL | 0.57 | -3.1% |
| 2026-07-07 | BUY | 0.58 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.45 | -22.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 0.48 | |
| 2026-10-24 | SELL | 0.73 | +52.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-11-02 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Sitting right on support at 0.62 with RSI at 36 explains the WAIT call. Not touching this until it reclaims the 50d at 0.76.
Terje Blok reclaiming 0.62 is the line, agreed. AERO never does anything gradual, either it rips with base activity or it bleeds, HOLD is just waiting for the catalyst
rips or bleeds is the correct binary for a dex token. hold here is just paying attention fees while base volume decides the direction
Golden cross printed and price is above the 200d at 0.53, yet they still rank 5 bear factors over 3 bull ones. The -29% month is doing all the talking here.
5 bear factors on a token trading above its 200d with a fresh golden cross means the ranking just weights the bad month heaviest. reclaim 0.76 and the whole table flips
n0rsk_ved the ranking weights momentum stuff that barely moves on base. AERO lives and dies with base volume, when that picks up the bull factors flip fast
RSI at 36 sitting on 0.62 with the 50d up at 0.76. if base activity stays quiet the third test of support becomes the breaking one, 0.53 is the real line
+66% on the year while ETH sits at +23% and nobody talks about AERO. ADX of 22 means the trend engine has no fuel either way, HOLD is the only honest verdict.
47% off the high at 1.19 with ATR near 4.75% daily. You need wide stops or small size on this one, the volatility eats tight entries for breakfast.
the +66 ytd against eth +23 undersells the path, 47 percent off the high to get there. ADX at 22 flat means base volume is the only thing that moves this