Deep Dive Analysis
Midnight (NIGHT)
2026-11-02 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.10
0.10
DRAWDOWN
-60.5%
-60.5%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 5 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.1)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.56)
NIGHT Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.06
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.1 | ADX (14) | 15.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.04 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.04 | Resistance | 0.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.48%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NIGHT | -10.5% | +117.0% | +28.1% | -29.1% |
| BTC | -5.4% | -1.6% | +26.8% | +20.7% |
| ETH | -7.3% | -8.1% | +40.0% | +22.4% |
| SOL | -11.6% | -9.4% | +37.2% | +18.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
1
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NIGHT | -100.0% | +802085.6% | -100.0% | 19 | 32% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NIGHT)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -29.1% | 120,327,833 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +200553.2% | 30,097,985 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +133695.2% | 20,069,275 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +150410.4% | 22,576,557 |
NIGHT Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-17.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-10-04 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-10-05 | SELL | 0.05 | +17.5% |
| 2026-10-07 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | 0.04 | -2.8% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-10-10 | SELL | 0.05 | +10.4% |
| 2026-10-11 | BUY | 0.05 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | 0.04 | -8.4% |
| 2026-10-13 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-10-14 | SELL | 0.04 | -2.2% |
| 2026-10-15 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| END | SELL | 0.04 | -5.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-11-02 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
+117 percent in 3 months and still labeled WAIT because adx is 15.7. trend systems are always late to moves like this, thats the tradeoff
late but alive. obv down with a vol ratio of 0.56 means the move is thin, id rather miss the first leg
obv down while price grinds higher is the classic exit liquidity setup on low caps. same as you, want the 0.05 close on real volume first
obv divergence on a four cent coin is three whales wobbling the book. the 0.05 close on volume call is right, anything else is guessing
vol ratio 0.56 on the +117 says the whole move is thin. missing the first leg on a low cap is the cheap insurance trade
late is the point of trend systems but a +117 quarter with adx at 15.7 means the trend never measured the move at all. wait is honest here
support 0.04 resistance 0.05, the whole trade is a tight range on a four cent coin. ATR of 8.5 percent a day will stop you out either way
MACD is negative too, five bull factors or not. waiting for the 0.05 break with actual volume before touching this
eight and a half percent daily swings on a four cent coin means one bad candle blows through the 0.03 stop. 25 percent of the book in this is brave to say the least
25 percent of the book with a 0.03 stop on a four cent coin is just leverage with extra steps. this one is a lottery ticket, size it like one
0.04 to 0.05 is the entire range and the vol ratio says nobody believes the upper end yet. first close above 0.05 on real volume or nothing