This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Solana (SOL)
USD 92.83
USD 294.33
-68.5%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (29.1), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 33.3)
Low: USD 60.41
Now: USD 92.83
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 29.1 | ADX (14) | 33.3 |
| 50d MA | USD 108.60 | 200d MA | USD 88.88 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 90.14 | Resistance | USD 121.94 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.21%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | -13.0% | -7.2% | +37.4% | +5.6% |
| BTC | -6.3% | +0.6% | +30.4% | +14.5% |
| ETH | -8.2% | -5.2% | +46.4% | +11.5% |
| SOL | -13.0% | -7.2% | +37.4% | +5.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -14.3% | -46.6% | -42.7% | 41 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +5.6% | USD 5,973 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.9% | USD 9,709 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -8.8% | USD 9,124 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -4.0% | USD 9,597 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify SOL. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 90.14 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 121.94 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 85.01 (-8.4% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 3.91 (4.21%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | USD 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | USD 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | USD 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | USD 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | USD 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | USD 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | USD 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | USD 105.65 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | USD 101.88 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | USD 103.00 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | USD 99.99 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 105.56 | +5.6% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
68.5% down from the 294 high and the model still says Neutral? RSI at 29 with price holding above the 200d at 88.88, feels more like accumulation than breakdown to me
@Sindre invalidation level at 85 is only 8.4% below spot tho. below that the model flips and your accumulation thesis is dead, ATR of 4.2% a day means it could get there by friday
@Sindre Vaag weekly close under 85 and even i stop buying. until then RSI 29 with the 200d holding is just a range low with extra drama
the backtest section is brutal lol. strategy down 14.3% but buy and hold down 46.6% with a 42.7% max DD. 41 trades for a 46% win rate, the fees alone ate them alive
3 comments on a daily monitor and two of you are arguing about backtest fees. touch grass, the whole point of a Neutral tag is do nothing