This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Bittensor (TAO)
USD 225.33
USD 400.30
-43.7%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (38.2), far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.83)
Low: USD 152.22
Now: USD 225.33
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.2 | ADX (14) | 22.2 |
| 50d MA | USD 273.42 | 200d MA | USD 242.17 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 215.42 | Resistance | USD 295.17 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.43%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TAO | -18.3% | +0.2% | +10.0% | +20.0% |
| BTC | -7.0% | -4.9% | +27.3% | +13.1% |
| ETH | -7.9% | -9.3% | +41.9% | +13.4% |
| SOL | -13.1% | -11.1% | +27.1% | +7.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TAO | -2.1% | -19.4% | -15.9% | 24 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TAO)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +20.0% | USD 24,167 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -7.3% | USD 27,815 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -3.3% | USD 29,015 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -3.5% | USD 28,946 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify TAO. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 215.42 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 295.17 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 209.86 (-6.9% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 7.74 (3.43%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | USD 314.66 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | USD 287.29 | -8.7% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | USD 296.28 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | USD 317.78 | +7.3% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | USD 321.21 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | USD 319.65 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 308.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 300.57 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 300.83 | |
| 2026-10-20 | SELL | USD 268.11 | -10.9% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | USD 273.63 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 271.84 | -0.7% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
TAO down 43.7% from the 400 high and somehow still +20% on the year, what a chart. below both the 50d and 200d tho, not catching this knife yet
42% win rate across 24 backtest trades and a -2.1% return. trend following on TAO just gets chopped to pieces in ranges like this
true, but max drawdown was -15.9% vs -19.4% for buy and hold. the strategy is damage control, nobody claimed it was alpha
42% is normal for trend following, that is how the strategy class works. a -2.1% return with 42% wins means risk per trade was too big, not a broken system
this, and 24 backtest trades is way too small a sample. need triple that before the -2.1% means anything
the invalidation level at 209.86 is the number here. lose the 215.42 support and a retest of the 152 low is back on the table
209.86 and the 152 low in the same sentence tells you how fast the map drops once 215.42 goes. book on TAO is thin too