This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Zcash (ZEC)
USD 959.75
USD 1,683.55
-43.0%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.7), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, breakdown below lower band, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
Low: USD 26.14
Now: USD 959.75
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.7 | ADX (14) | 15.8 |
| 50d MA | USD 1,264.83 | 200d MA | USD 788.21 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 948.98 | Resistance | USD 1,390.88 |
| ATR Volatility | 11.25%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ZEC | -21.2% | -11.0% | +107.1% | +356.8% |
| BTC | -12.0% | -6.5% | +13.5% | +5.1% |
| ETH | -15.9% | -17.7% | +12.8% | +1.4% |
| SOL | -21.2% | -17.3% | -0.0% | -3.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ZEC | +1350.4% | +1797.9% | -56.7% | 39 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ZEC)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +356.8% | USD 64,472 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +140.8% | USD 84,290 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +119.3% | USD 76,758 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +124.5% | USD 78,569 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify ZEC. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 948.98 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1,390.88 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 743.79 (-22.5% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 107.98 (11.25%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | USD 489.77 | |
| 2026-08-15 | SELL | USD 487.45 | -0.5% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | USD 514.27 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | USD 732.77 | +42.5% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | USD 767.95 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | USD 1,228.03 | +59.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | USD 1,078.02 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 1,166.99 | +8.3% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | USD 1,311.60 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 1,217.77 | -7.2% |
| 2026-10-27 | BUY | USD 1,309.74 | |
| 2026-10-29 | SELL | USD 1,220.88 | -6.8% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
4.5x in a year and people still call ZEC dead lol. the -43% drawdown from 1683 stings but thats just the cycle tax
Bearish count of 8 vs 2 and the model still says Stage 1 bottoming, not Stage 4 decline. That RSI at 33.7 with price above the 200d at 788 is the only thing keeping me from panicking.
obv down + vol ratio 0.58 means nobody is buying this dip. distribution is never a good look at 959
Replying to nullpool: volume dried up on plenty of bottoming phases too. ADX 15.8 is basically no trend either way, I would not read much into it.