This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Monero (XMR)
USD 553.73
USD 798.91
-30.7%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (40.8), far below high, breakdown below lower band
Low: USD 140.72
Now: USD 553.73
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.8 | ADX (14) | 24.6 |
| 50d MA | USD 574.45 | 200d MA | USD 437.94 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 528.01 | Resistance | USD 655.10 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.49%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XMR | -7.8% | +9.0% | +68.7% | +57.3% |
| BTC | -12.0% | -6.5% | +13.5% | +5.1% |
| ETH | -15.9% | -17.7% | +12.8% | +1.4% |
| SOL | -21.2% | -17.3% | -0.0% | -3.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XMR | +18.5% | +70.8% | -51.0% | 64 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XMR)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +57.3% | USD 42,923 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +47.2% | USD 44,163 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +33.2% | USD 39,956 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +37.2% | USD 41,170 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify XMR. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 528.01 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 655.10 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 492.89 (-11.0% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 30.42 (5.49%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | USD 393.51 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | USD 399.43 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | USD 410.36 | |
| 2026-08-16 | SELL | USD 409.80 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | USD 415.66 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | USD 517.64 | +24.5% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | USD 495.34 | |
| 2026-10-10 | SELL | USD 519.52 | +4.9% |
| 2026-10-11 | BUY | USD 537.25 | |
| 2026-11-10 | SELL | USD 562.28 | +4.7% |
| 2026-11-11 | BUY | USD 582.15 | |
| 2026-11-12 | SELL | USD 553.73 | -4.9% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
XMR +57% on the year while BTC managed +5% and ETH basically flat. privacy coins quietly eating and nobody talks about it
The backtest section is a good reality check. Model made 18.5% with a -51% max drawdown while buy and hold did 70.8%. Sometimes the boring path wins.
^ this. 64 trades and a 47% win rate to underperform holding. id still watch that invalidation at 492 though, losing the 528 support would get ugly fast