Deep Dive Analysis
Arweave (AR)
2026-08-11 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.84
1.84
52W HIGH
28.88
28.88
DRAWDOWN
-93.6%
-93.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 3 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, RSI healthy (51.0), vol 1.32x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
AR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 4.31
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.84
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.84
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.0 | ADX (14) | 19.5 |
| 50d MA | 1.89 | 200d MA | 1.99 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.68 | Resistance | 2.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.46%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AR | -4.4% | -4.9% | +10.4% | -57.3% |
| BTC | -3.8% | +3.8% | -4.3% | -31.6% |
| ETH | -2.8% | +14.5% | -8.8% | -41.3% |
| SOL | -3.1% | +16.5% | -4.1% | -47.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,894
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AR | -34.0% | -78.4% | -37.9% | 36 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.3% | 3,540 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -39.6% | 9,066 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -31.6% | 10,256 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -33.5% | 9,968 |
AR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.71 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (8.8%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (8.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-17 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-18 | SELL | 2.12 | +1.1% |
| 2026-05-19 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-20 | SELL | 2.18 | +4.1% |
| 2026-05-21 | BUY | 2.19 | |
| 2026-05-22 | SELL | 2.05 | -6.5% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 2.10 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 2.05 | -2.4% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 2.12 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 2.09 | -1.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | BUY | 2.52 | |
| 2026-06-04 | SELL | 2.31 | -8.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-11 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
3.46% daily ATR volatility on a coin trading at $1.84. good luck sizing that position without blowing your risk model
the 3.46% ATR on a 1.84 price is actually insane. youd need 10x leverage just to make the daily range worth trading
3.46% daily ATR on a $1.84 coin. the volatility alone would eat any position size
57% down in a year on a lump sum and they call it AVOID. took yall long enough
93.6% drawdown and they still rated it SELL not AVOID. generous tbh
44% win rate across 36 trades. thats basically a coin flip and you still lost 34% running the system. brutal
Been saying this since the AR pump. The storage use case is real but the tokenomics are a disaster. Down 93% from high confirms it
@StorageCoinMike dev activity means nothing if nobody buys the token. seen a hundred projects with active githubs trading at zero
@arb_dust_42 dev activity matters when the team isnt dumping. check the AR wallet outflows before defending github commits
storage narrative been dead since 2022. filecoin, arweave, storj all -90%+. permanent storage is a feature nobody pays for
^ AR still has dev activity tho. seen a few commits this week. not saying buy but calling it dead is a stretch
DCA 6 buys at -31.6% being the least bad option tells you everything about this token. not touching this
drawdown from 52w high is 93.6%. calling it AVOID at these levels is closing the barn door after the horse bolted