Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-07-21 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (62.5), strong bull trend (ADX 35.3), breakout above upper band
Bearish factors: 50d falling, far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 62.5 | ADX (14) | 35.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.81%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +7.0% | -28.7% | -28.7% | -52.4% |
| BTC | +13.0% | -13.8% | -6.1% | -34.9% |
| ETH | +23.5% | -8.2% | -6.5% | -43.2% |
| SOL | +6.5% | -7.0% | -9.9% | -48.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,964
RETURN
-26.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-26.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -26.9% | -71.5% | -26.9% | 33 | 9% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -52.4% | 4,280 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -51.0% | 7,356 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -49.1% | 7,629 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -45.4% | 8,190 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.7% |
| 2026-01-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-23 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-21 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
9% win rate across 33 trades is genuinely impressive in the worst way. how do you even manage to lose 91% of trades on a coin that had a clear direction most of the time
bonecollector_99 9 percent win rate on 33 trades means 3 winners. on a meme coin with no fundamental direction thats actually normal. SHIB doesnt trend, it just random walks until elon tweets
buy and hold at -71.5% vs strategy at -26.9%… so the system lost less money than holding. thats not a win, thats just a slower bleed
Dimitri S. a system that loses 26.9 percent vs buy and hold at 71.5 percent IS a win in a downtrend. capital preservation matters more than moonshots when the asset is down 70 percent
calling a HOLD on an asset down 71 percent with a strategy down 27 percent is wild. the analysis is solid but maybe the conclusion should have been just exit