Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-07-21 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (62.5), strong bull trend (ADX 35.3), breakout above upper band
Bearish factors: 50d falling, far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 62.5 | ADX (14) | 35.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.81%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +7.0% | -28.7% | -28.7% | -52.4% |
| BTC | +13.0% | -13.8% | -6.1% | -34.9% |
| ETH | +23.5% | -8.2% | -6.5% | -43.2% |
| SOL | +6.5% | -7.0% | -9.9% | -48.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,964
RETURN
-26.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-26.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -26.9% | -71.5% | -26.9% | 33 | 9% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -52.4% | 4,280 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -51.0% | 7,356 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -49.1% | 7,629 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -45.4% | 8,190 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.7% |
| 2026-01-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-23 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-21 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
9% win rate across 33 trades is genuinely impressive in the worst way. how do you even manage to lose 91% of trades on a coin that had a clear direction most of the time
bonecollector_99 9 percent win rate on 33 trades means 3 winners. on a meme coin with no fundamental direction thats actually normal. SHIB doesnt trend, it just random walks until elon tweets
buy and hold at -71.5% vs strategy at -26.9%… so the system lost less money than holding. thats not a win, thats just a slower bleed
Dimitri S. a system that loses 26.9 percent vs buy and hold at 71.5 percent IS a win in a downtrend. capital preservation matters more than moonshots when the asset is down 70 percent
Dimitri S. -26.9 vs -71.5 is a slower bleed not a win. but on a meme coin with zero utility capital preservation is all you can ask for
9pct win rate on 33 trades and the conclusion is HOLD. the strategy lost 27pct. at some point capital preservation means admitting the trade is bad
Moritz W. 9% win rate and the call is HOLD not EXIT. capital preservation on a meme coin is an oxymoron. you preserve capital by not holding memes
9 percent win rate across 33 trades on SHIB is actually impressive. you have to actively try to be that bad at trading a coin that just random walks
calling a HOLD on an asset down 71 percent with a strategy down 27 percent is wild. the analysis is solid but maybe the conclusion should have been just exit
Tomas H. calling HOLD on something down 71pct is cope. -26.9pct vs -71.5pct just means you lost money slightly slower than people who did nothing
shib_denier_ -26.9 vs -71.5 is cope yes but what else do you do on a meme with zero utility. the HOLD rating is just admitting you cant time randomness
3 wins out of 33 trades on SHIB. at that point flipping a coin would give you better odds. the HOLD rating is generous
strategy down 27 percent vs buy and hold down 71 percent. losing slower is still losing. exit was the right call months ago
3 wins out of 33 trades on SHIB. at that point the strategy is just a random number generator with extra steps
winrate_audit_ 3 wins from 33 trades is actually a signal to stop trading SHIB entirely. the coin doesnt trend, it just moves when elon breathes near a microphone
3 wins from 33 trades on SHIB and the model says HOLD. a coin flip gives you 50 percent win rate. this strategy is actively worse than random chance on every metric
Honza P. the 9 percent win rate is misleading without trade sizing. if the 3 winners were positioned larger than the 30 losers the return profile changes completely. need to see risk-adjusted not just raw win rate
Relying on three outsized winners to carry 33 trades works until the sample grows and the fat tail stops showing up. Position sizing saves you from variance, it cannot save you from a dead asset.
3 out of 33 wins and the model says HOLD. my grandma flipping a coin on SHIB would have better stats and she doesnt need a 15000 dollar deployment plan
Dimitri O. fr. at 9pct win rate the strategy is statistically indistinguishable from randomly pressing buy and sell. calling it capital preservation is generous
the win rate is brutal but the report at least shows the losses were small and the wins were big. 33 trades though, thats not a sample, thats a weekend in SHIB
15000 deployment plan on a token with zero utility beyond ShibaSwap volume. the analysis is sophisticated but the asset is a meme. writing covered calls on lottery tickets energy
covered calls on SHIB is selling insurance on a burning house but ok. premium looks great until the elon pump rips through your short strike and you rebuy 40 pct higher
been short strikes through two elon mentions, got assigned once at 3am and rebought 35 pct higher. premium farming on shib is a second job lol
15k deployment into an asset with a 9 pct win rate because the chart looks like its basing. the entire thesis is one meme cycle away from being right or wrong. i respect the honesty of the backtest at least