Deep Dive Analysis
Celestia (TIA)
2026-07-23 10:33 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.36
0.36
52W HIGH
3.81
3.81
DRAWDOWN
-90.6%
-90.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (42.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.68)
TIA Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.85
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.36
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.36
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.0 | ADX (14) | 16.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.37 | 200d MA | 0.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.34 | Resistance | 0.42 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.1%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TIA | -2.0% | -15.7% | +2.6% | -58.0% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,082
RETURN
-59.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-60.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TIA | -59.8% | +4961.5% | -60.9% | 17 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TIA)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -58.0% | 6,857 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -41.9% | 20,323 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -37.5% | 21,865 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -32.5% | 23,614 |
TIA Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.31 (-12.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.41 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.47 | +14.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.47 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.44 | -6.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-06-17 | SELL | 0.39 | -2.8% |
| 2026-06-18 | BUY | 0.39 | |
| 2026-06-19 | SELL | 0.38 | -3.4% |
| 2026-07-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-07-06 | SELL | 0.38 | -3.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-07-09 | SELL | 0.41 | +2.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 10:33 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
90% down from the high and still a SELL. modular data availability narrative is dead for now, celestia bleed out with no buyers in sight
@moonlit_bear_ the 0 for 9 bear factors is brutal. not a single bullish signal on the checklist, even RSI at 42 isnt oversold enough to matter
OBV trending down and volume ratio at 0.68 tells you everything. institutions already left this one, retail bagholders praying for a bounce that aint coming
Dimitri K. volume ratio at 0.68 means the sellers already exited. low volume grind down not a dump. backwards but the capitulation trade might actually work here
0 for 9 on bullish factors and the price is still holding 0.36. either the analysis is wrong or the floor is purely inertia from trapped longs
35K portfolio plan and the recommendation is SELL on something already down 90 percent. bold call but the modular DA thesis is genuinely dead for now