Deep Dive Analysis
Celestia (TIA)
2026-07-23 10:33 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.36
0.36
52W HIGH
3.81
3.81
DRAWDOWN
-90.6%
-90.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (42.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.68)
TIA Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.85
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.36
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.36
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.0 | ADX (14) | 16.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.37 | 200d MA | 0.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.34 | Resistance | 0.42 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.1%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TIA | -2.0% | -15.7% | +2.6% | -58.0% |
| BTC | +6.6% | -15.4% | -7.9% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +13.2% | -9.8% | -8.4% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -4.1% | -11.3% | -12.2% | -44.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,082
RETURN
-59.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-60.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TIA | -59.8% | +4961.5% | -60.9% | 17 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TIA)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -58.0% | 6,857 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -41.9% | 20,323 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -37.5% | 21,865 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -32.5% | 23,614 |
TIA Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.31 (-12.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.41 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.47 | +14.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.47 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.44 | -6.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-06-17 | SELL | 0.39 | -2.8% |
| 2026-06-18 | BUY | 0.39 | |
| 2026-06-19 | SELL | 0.38 | -3.4% |
| 2026-07-05 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-07-06 | SELL | 0.38 | -3.4% |
| 2026-07-08 | BUY | 0.40 | |
| 2026-07-09 | SELL | 0.41 | +2.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 10:33 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
90% down from the high and still a SELL. modular data availability narrative is dead for now, celestia bleed out with no buyers in sight
@moonlit_bear_ the 0 for 9 bear factors is brutal. not a single bullish signal on the checklist, even RSI at 42 isnt oversold enough to matter
moonlit_bear_ 0 for 9 bullish factors is impressive in a morbid way. usually something bounces just from mean reversion but TIA said nope
OBV trending down and volume ratio at 0.68 tells you everything. institutions already left this one, retail bagholders praying for a bounce that aint coming
Dimitri K. volume ratio at 0.68 means the sellers already exited. low volume grind down not a dump. backwards but the capitulation trade might actually work here
OBV trending down and volume ratio 0.68 confirms the slow bleed. no volume means no interest and no interest means no floor
0 for 9 on bullish factors and the price is still holding 0.36. either the analysis is wrong or the floor is purely inertia from trapped longs
35K portfolio plan and the recommendation is SELL on something already down 90 percent. bold call but the modular DA thesis is genuinely dead for now
TIA at 0.36 down 90pct from 3.81 and the analysis still says SELL. modular DA narrative is cooked until someone actually builds real demand
Hannelore K. 0 for 9 bullish factors is almost impressive. usually something bounces from pure mean reversion but TIA just keeps making lower highs. the unlock schedule is brutal too
Hannelore K. counterpoint, the modular data availability thesis was the entire valuation. if the narrative breaks you dont average in, the floor is genuinely unknowable
uncomfortable truth is TIA never traded on cash flows. narrative valuations have no floor anchor. 0.10 is as defensible as 0.36 when the thesis breaks
right, the only number with any teeth left is the token release schedule and it points one way. float inflation on a set calendar beats any price target
TIA at 0.36 down 90 percent from 3.81 and people still holding out for a turnaround. modular DA was the 2024 narrative, in 2026 its just another token bleeding out
Joon-ho L. modular vs monolithic settled the hard way. new alt-da chains keep launching and splitting the same fee pool. a turnaround needs a catalyst, TIA mostly has an unlock schedule
every alt-da launch cannibalizes the same ten rollups. TIA fee take is a melting ice cube and the unlocks keep feeding supply into no bid
sell rating at 0.36 is a formality. anyone still holding from 3.81 isnt exiting on an analyst note now. theyre riding it to zero or a miracle, the 35k deployment plan is doing heavy lifting
Psychologically that is exactly right. Selling at 0.36 after riding from 3.81 locks in the mistake, so the bag just sits and waits. Sell notes do not move flows that are already frozen.
frozen flows plus a release calendar is the worst combo. every unlock hands new supply to holders who already wanted out but couldnt afford the print
alt-da was the death knell. once rollups realized they could ship their own data lane the toll booth story was over, price just took a year to notice
sold the last of my TIA around 0.52 and felt dumb when it bounced. then it kept bleeding. stage 4 charts dont forgive
0.52 exit looking like a gift in hindsight. these deployment writeups always print the entry grid in bold and bury the part where you are the exit liquidity
fee take shrinking while every rollup ships its own DA lane. TIA is a toll booth and the road builders went somewhere else. 0.36 is a rest stop on the way down
the toll booth line is the whole thesis. every rollup that mattered shipped alt-da or its own lane, and now the fee pool keeps splitting into no bid. 0.36 with unlocks ahead is just a waypoint
From 3.81 to 0.36 inside a year and the analysis still has to justify a high conviction sell. The drawdown column already made that case for free.
every sell note on a token like this reads like a eulogy written two years late. the chart was already the thesis in 2024