Deep Dive Analysis
Arweave (AR)
2026-07-27 17:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.83
1.83
52W HIGH
33.19
33.19
DRAWDOWN
-94.5%
-94.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 1 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.16)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (41.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
AR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 4.21
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.83
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.83
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.3 | ADX (14) | 14.5 |
| 50d MA | 1.95 | 200d MA | 2.15 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.81 | Resistance | 2.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.17%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AR | -9.1% | -13.3% | +5.3% | -56.4% |
| BTC | +1.0% | -16.4% | -9.3% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +7.5% | -8.5% | -12.3% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -11.2% | -16.2% | -46.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
23,085
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AR | -34.0% | -80.9% | -37.9% | 36 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.4% | 8,762 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -45.1% | 19,205 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -43.1% | 19,916 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -37.2% | 21,976 |
AR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.68 (-8.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (9.0%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (9.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-17 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-18 | SELL | 2.12 | +1.1% |
| 2026-05-19 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-20 | SELL | 2.18 | +4.1% |
| 2026-05-21 | BUY | 2.19 | |
| 2026-05-22 | SELL | 2.05 | -6.5% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 2.10 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 2.05 | -2.4% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 2.12 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 2.09 | -1.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | BUY | 2.52 | |
| 2026-06-04 | SELL | 2.31 | -8.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-27 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
94.5% drawdown from the high and you still gotta worry about it going lower. bought a bag at 3 dollars thinking it was a deal, lesson learned
The backtest showing -34% for the strategy vs -81% buy and hold is interesting and all, but 44% win rate over 36 trades just means you got chopped to pieces. Fees on top of that and you are down even more
tomas you realize the whole point of trend following is to lose less than buy and hold right? -34 vs -81 is a massive difference on 35k
Tomas R. 44% win rate over 36 trades is brutal but -34% vs -81% buy and hold still saved 47 grand on a 35k portfolio. trend following works even when its ugly
permabear_rat_ -34% vs -81% on a 35K portfolio is still losing 12 grand. trend following saves you from the worst but its not magic
44% win rate across 36 trades means 20 losses you sit through without rage quitting. the math holds, most people just cant stomach the execution half
94.5% drawdown from 33 to 1.83. AR was supposed to be the permanent storage layer and instead it became a permanent bag
arweave_ghost_ 94.5% drawdown and the permanent storage pitch still has believers. the tech works, the token just has no demand driver
name one permaweb app with actual users. storage fees are dust and the token has no buyer besides people averaging down. the pitch works, the economics dont
turbo made payments legible and the token still didnt move. storage demand exists, its just priced too low in dollars to matter at 1.83
Storage costs falling is supposedly the bull case but Arweave pays holders nothing. Fees at these levels cannot support the token at any market cap. The tech thesis and the token thesis are two different trades.
^ exactly, and the backtest in the piece shows it. trend following lost 34 percent on AR while buy and hold lost 81. when the only win is losing less, the token itself is the problem
The backtest comparison keeps getting quoted but SELL discipline only pays if you actually redeploy elsewhere. Sitting in stables while AR chops sideways is also a -34 percent opportunity cost.
the token/tech split is the whole problem. pay once for permanent storage and revenue decays while costs just sit there. economics only work if demand compounds forever
the pay once store forever model has a second problem nobody mentions. the endowment assumes AR tokens appreciate, but if the token bleeds 94 percent the permanent storage guarantee gets funded by an increasingly thin reserve
endowment_bug did the math nobody wants to do. token down 94 percent means the storage reserve needs a top up mechanism or permanent quietly stops meaning permanent
still waiting on that permaweb app answer btw. every AR thread dies at the same question and nobody ever drops a link
arwidow keeps asking and the honest answer is arwiki plus a few mirror clones. the app layer never came, storage shipped, apps did not
third thread in a row where the app question goes unanswered. mirror clones are not apps, at some point someone has to ship something people search for
ao was the one real shot at an app layer and the activity moved on before the economics could carry it. the archive thesis works, nobody builds on an archive
a SELL rating on something already down 94% feels gratuitous until you read the backtest. -34% versus -81% on the same account is the difference between retiring and starting over
you only need the drawdown math to be right. SELL discipline kept me out of LUNA all the way down and AR at these levels is the same trade
1.83 with support at 1.81 means the next leg down probably isnt gentle. adx at 14 says no trend but the stage 4 label says trend, pick one
ADX at 14 after an 81 percent drawdown just means the sellers got tired. chop is what bottoms look like, sometimes
trend following losing 34 percent while buy and hold lost 81 is still the right call here. the permaweb thesis needed apps years ago, all it has is a nice archive