Deep Dive Analysis
Arweave (AR)
2026-07-27 17:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.83
1.83
52W HIGH
33.19
33.19
DRAWDOWN
-94.5%
-94.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 1 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.16)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (41.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
AR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 4.21
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.83
Low: 1.49
Now: 1.83
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.3 | ADX (14) | 14.5 |
| 50d MA | 1.95 | 200d MA | 2.15 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.81 | Resistance | 2.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.17%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AR | -9.1% | -13.3% | +5.3% | -56.4% |
| BTC | +1.0% | -16.4% | -9.3% | -30.5% |
| ETH | +7.5% | -8.5% | -12.3% | -38.1% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -11.2% | -16.2% | -46.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
23,085
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AR | -34.0% | -80.9% | -37.9% | 36 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.4% | 8,762 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -45.1% | 19,205 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -43.1% | 19,916 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -37.2% | 21,976 |
AR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.68 (-8.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (9.0%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (9.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-17 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-18 | SELL | 2.12 | +1.1% |
| 2026-05-19 | BUY | 2.09 | |
| 2026-05-20 | SELL | 2.18 | +4.1% |
| 2026-05-21 | BUY | 2.19 | |
| 2026-05-22 | SELL | 2.05 | -6.5% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 2.10 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 2.05 | -2.4% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 2.12 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 2.09 | -1.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | BUY | 2.52 | |
| 2026-06-04 | SELL | 2.31 | -8.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-27 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
94.5% drawdown from the high and you still gotta worry about it going lower. bought a bag at 3 dollars thinking it was a deal, lesson learned
The backtest showing -34% for the strategy vs -81% buy and hold is interesting and all, but 44% win rate over 36 trades just means you got chopped to pieces. Fees on top of that and you are down even more
tomas you realize the whole point of trend following is to lose less than buy and hold right? -34 vs -81 is a massive difference on 35k
Tomas R. 44% win rate over 36 trades is brutal but -34% vs -81% buy and hold still saved 47 grand on a 35k portfolio. trend following works even when its ugly
94.5% drawdown from 33 to 1.83. AR was supposed to be the permanent storage layer and instead it became a permanent bag