Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-08-09 19:12 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-82.7%
-82.7%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.23)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.13
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 48.7 | ADX (14) | 11.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.07 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.89%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +4.2% | -15.3% | -20.9% | -48.0% |
| BTC | +0.7% | +3.0% | -4.5% | -24.5% |
| ETH | +2.6% | +13.9% | -8.8% | -31.4% |
| SOL | +1.1% | +16.4% | -7.2% | -39.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,824
RETURN
+5.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.5% | -64.9% | -31.5% | 31 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -48.0% | 4,006 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -46.8% | 7,984 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -41.9% | 8,717 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.0% | 8,998 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-5.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-29 | SELL | 0.10 | +9.3% |
| 2026-05-30 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-31 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.09 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-09 19:12 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a sell call at 0.28 when its already down 30% from the 0.40 high. brilliant analysis, very helpful
bought at 0.28 thinking the enterprise adoption narrative was real. down 75% and now some algo says avoid lol thanks guys
hbar_bagholder_88 the enterprise adoption narrative was always fluff. Hedera council members got free tokens and called it partnership
bought at 0.28 too, sold at 0.14 and slept better. the algo saying avoid isnt your enemy, its the receipt
the 50d/200d death cross already happened weeks ago though, this call feels late imo
^ exactly, by the time these trend-following models scream SELL the move is mostly done. been holding hbar since 0.19 and not selling here
82.7% drawdown and they still flag it as avoid? at some point the risk/reward flips but sure lets keep selling the bottom
^ the 50d/200d MA system has been short HBAR since it crossed below 0.12. trend following doesnt care about your risk reward thesis
5 bearish factors vs 2 bullish and you guys are still arguing bullish. the OBV accumulation means nothing if price keeps making lower highs
Priyanka V. OBV accumulation during a Stage 4 downtrend is just slow distribution disguised as accumulation. the lower highs confirm it
Dmitri S. 82% drawdown being a buy signal is survivorship bias. some projects draw down 82% then another 82% from there. HBAR enterprise adoption narrative was always thin
82.7% drawdown and SELL call. at some point the risk reward flips but quant models dont do mean reversion, they just trend follow into the ground
its not the models that cant call a bottom, its the analysts who got burned on the last three calls. 0.07 on hbar is a lottery ticket not a position
Tomasz W. trend following into the ground still beats the inverse. the crowd calling HBAR bottoms since 0.30 is down way more than the model ever was
council rotates member logos every year and the chart has never once noticed. the enterprise story was a press release generator
every year a fresh batch of logos and the same zero fee revenue. its a rotating billboard, not a governance body
gregg_hbar_ the logo wall did more price action in press releases than the chart ever did in candles. five years of the same trick
15k deployment plan on a SELL rated token. the portfolio size and the conviction are pointing in opposite directions
15k on a SELL is hedged desk language, sized to be right publicly without costing much if the bounce comes. the conviction math checks out actually
desk_size the 15k sizing is also the tell. real conviction on a SELL gets real size, this reads like a model that has to print a number either way
15k on a SELL is the model hedging its own homework. agree with the direction but the sizing tells you the confidence math is mushy
0.07 hbar and both sides of these comments still fighting. only winners are whoever sold the top of the enterprise adoption story back in 2021
sold my council era bags at 0.28 and watching 0.07 from the sideline stings less than holding would have. learn the lesson early or the chart teaches it
every hbar quarterly update is a new logo wall and the same zero fee revenue. five years of press releases, one chart going the wrong way