Deep Dive Analysis
Optimism (OP)
2026-08-09 19:39 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
2.77
2.77
DRAWDOWN
-96.8%
-96.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
OP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.29
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.2 | ADX (14) | 22.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.13 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.11 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.31%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| OP | -6.2% | -8.3% | -19.5% | -69.0% |
| BTC | +0.7% | +3.0% | -4.5% | -24.5% |
| ETH | +2.6% | +13.9% | -8.8% | -31.4% |
| SOL | +1.1% | +16.4% | -7.2% | -39.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
23,086
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| OP | -34.0% | -91.7% | -40.6% | 17 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (OP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -69.0% | 3,950 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -66.7% | 11,661 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -55.5% | 15,566 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -54.3% | 15,983 |
OP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-8.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.70 | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-10 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2026-01-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2026-01-12 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2026-01-13 | SELL | 0.37 | +18.7% |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.34 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.35 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2026-01-25 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-09 19:39 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
96.8% off the highs and still a SELL lmao. anyone holding OP from the $2.77 days is in deep cope territory
1 bull factor vs 6 bear and people will still buy this thinking its a bottom. its not a bottom its a trap
96.8% underwater and the model still prints SELL is the coldest signal output ive seen. trend following does not care about your entry price, that is the entire point of it
at least the model is consistent, SELL at 0.09 the same way it would have at 2. the humans are the ones who change their thesis every 20 percent move
a model that says SELL at 2 and SELL at 0.09 is just a model that says SELL. consistent sure, but lets not call that alpha
consistent yes but the obvious question is what flips the signal. trend models need structure so OP could double from 0.09 and it still says SELL until a higher low prints. the entry is watching for the flip
and when the higher low finally prints you’re buying back above your exit feeling dumb. trend models on microcaps charge you discipline and dignity in equal parts
Backtest going from 35k to 23k is rough but honestly better than the lump sum crowd down 69%. Trend following at least got you out.
dmitri trend following only works when the asset actually trends both ways. OP has exactly one trend and it points down, the strategy is just an eloquent way of staying out
tbf the DCA 12-buy still lost 54%. this token has been a one-way elevator down for over a year
twelve buys and still down 54% tells you the entries werent the problem. DCA math breaks on a token that only goes one way
dca works when the asset mean reverts eventually. OP keeps discovering new basements. past some point averaging down is donating with extra steps
buys 8 through 12 all felt like smart entries at the time. that is the trap, every tranche looks like a discount until the token halves again
Every tranche looks rational in isolation. The portfolio is the unit that matters, and 12 entries into one falling knife is one decision repeated.
OP at 0.58 with a 2.77 high is rough. the retroactive airdrop farmers long gone
airdrop farmers were the only thing keeping engagement alive lol. now its just DAO governance ghost town
governance turnout was single digit percent even with airdrop incentives running. the ghost town didnt start when the farmers left, it was always this quiet
1 bull factor against 8 bear. Base cannibalizing OP chain tvl and nobody wants to talk about it
base eating OP chain tvl while the foundation keeps shipping grant programs. the superchain ended up being a ladder for coinbase to climb right over them
a 35k portfolio getting a deep dive while OP sits 96.8 percent underwater is dark comedy. respect for publishing it though, most analysts memory hole their losers
credit for keeping the post up. the standard move is quietly delete, wait a quarter, rebrand as a macro account
a 35k portfolio teardown on a token down 96.8% is basically a postmortem. position sizing was the whole lesson, 1 or 2% allocations survive OP without needing six bear factors
1 or 2 percent allocations turn a 96.8% drawdown into a rounding error. OP taught a whole cohort position sizing the expensive way
the expensive way indeed. 96.8 percent on a 1 percent slot is a bad lunch. on a full size bag its a decade of savings gone. sizing is the whole game
twelve buys averaging into a 96.8 percent drawdown. the opportunity cost of that capital sitting in btc over the same window is the loss nobody counts