Deep Dive Analysis
Optimism (OP)
2026-08-09 19:39 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
2.77
2.77
DRAWDOWN
-96.8%
-96.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
OP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.29
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.2 | ADX (14) | 22.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.13 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.11 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.31%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| OP | -6.2% | -8.3% | -19.5% | -69.0% |
| BTC | +0.7% | +3.0% | -4.5% | -24.5% |
| ETH | +2.6% | +13.9% | -8.8% | -31.4% |
| SOL | +1.1% | +16.4% | -7.2% | -39.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
23,086
RETURN
-34.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-40.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| OP | -34.0% | -91.7% | -40.6% | 17 | 35% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (OP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -69.0% | 3,950 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -66.7% | 11,661 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -55.5% | 15,566 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -54.3% | 15,983 |
OP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-8.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.79 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.70 | -10.9% |
| 2026-01-10 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2026-01-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2026-01-12 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2026-01-13 | SELL | 0.37 | +18.7% |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.34 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.35 | +2.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2026-01-25 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-09 19:39 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
96.8% off the highs and still a SELL lmao. anyone holding OP from the $2.77 days is in deep cope territory
1 bull factor vs 6 bear and people will still buy this thinking its a bottom. its not a bottom its a trap
Backtest going from 35k to 23k is rough but honestly better than the lump sum crowd down 69%. Trend following at least got you out.
tbf the DCA 12-buy still lost 54%. this token has been a one-way elevator down for over a year
OP at 0.58 with a 2.77 high is rough. the retroactive airdrop farmers long gone
airdrop farmers were the only thing keeping engagement alive lol. now its just DAO governance ghost town
1 bull factor against 8 bear. Base cannibalizing OP chain tvl and nobody wants to talk about it