Bitcoin opened the week above 65,000 as reports that Iran is prepared to strike a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent risk assets higher across the board — but beneath the calm surface, derivatives markets are flashing signals that the crypto rally may be running on fumes rather than fuel.
By Yasmin Al-Rashid | August 10, 2026
The Broad View
Bitcoin gained ground as news broke that Iran is ready to negotiate a deal with Oman to reopen one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz disruption had been hanging over markets for weeks, contributing to risk-off sentiment that kept Bitcoin rangebound through late July and early August. With the geopolitical pressure easing, investors rotated back into risk assets: Bitcoin rose, Ethereum followed, and even Nasdaq futures ticked upward.
But the move has been modest, not explosive. Bitcoin is trading in a narrow band, and the broader altcoin market — smaller tokens outside the top two — has barely moved. The altcoin season indicator, a metric that tracks whether capital is rotating from Bitcoin into smaller tokens, sits at just 37 out of 100. Anything below 50 means Bitcoin is still dominating, and meaningful rotation into altcoins remains contingent on Bitcoin breaking out of its current range.
Key Support and Resistance
For Bitcoin, the levels to watch are clear. The current support zone sits around 64,000, and Bitcoin has been bouncing off it repeatedly. Above, the resistance levels are stacked at 68,000 and then 72,000. Until Bitcoin can decisively break above 68,000, the market is effectively in a holding pattern.
Ethereum tells a different story. ETH futures have seen continued de-risking, with open interest falling to its lowest level since early May. Traders are pulling bets off the table, and ETH has been underperforming Bitcoin — not a bullish signal for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Ethereum is currently trading near 1,898, well below the highs it reached earlier in the year.
One bright spot is Solana, which has shown renewed activity in its futures market. Open interest in SOL contracts has rebounded from recent lows, coinciding with a price recovery from near 70 to above 76. SOL has also broken above a widely tracked technical indicator known as the Ichimoku cloud, which some traders interpret as a short-term bullish signal.
Institutional Flows
The options market is where the real story lies. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, known as BVIV, has dropped to its lowest level of 2026 — signaling that the market expects calm. But some traders are warning that this complacency may be misplaced. Protective put options — which pay off if Bitcoin falls — are still trading at a premium to call options, meaning that anyone who wants insurance against a price drop is paying more than usual for it.
The 24-hour options volume shows a bias toward call options at the 68,000 and 70,000 strikes, suggesting that traders who are active in the options market are positioning for upside. But this is a thin market, and the volume is modest compared to earlier in the year when Bitcoin was making bigger moves.
In the spot market, liquidations fell significantly — down roughly a third to approximately 85 million in a 24-hour window. Low liquidation volumes typically indicate a market that is stabilizing rather than one where leveraged traders are being forced to buy or sell. This is neutral news: it means less forced selling pressure, but also less buying momentum.
Sentiment Indicators
A few tokens are bucking the subdued trend. Pump.fun (PUMP) led the altcoin market with a gain of over five percent, extending its market capitalization above one billion. Ethena (ENA) and NEAR Protocol also posted gains, with NEAR benefiting from a broader recovery in AI-related tokens.
Privacy coin Monero (XMR) surged to its highest level since mid-June, briefly topping 400. The rally appears to have genuine buying behind it: futures open interest jumped alongside the price, and funding rates are the highest among major cryptocurrencies — suggesting traders are willing to pay a premium for upside exposure.
The long-short ratio for crypto futures has flipped slightly bullish, with long positions accounting for 52 percent of taker volume. However, Bitcoin futures open interest remains subdued, slipping below 750,000 BTC. The market is present but not committed — a far cry from the fervor seen during earlier rallies.
The Bull and Bear Case
The bull case: Geopolitical tensions are easing, which historically benefits risk assets. Bitcoin’s volatility is at yearly lows, which could attract institutional investors who were waiting for calmer waters. The options market shows a bias toward upside calls. SOL’s technical breakout and Monero’s surge suggest that capital is beginning to look beyond Bitcoin for opportunities. If Bitcoin breaks above 68,000, the door opens for a run toward 72,000 and potentially a new chapter of the bull market.
The bear case: Low volatility can precede sharp moves in either direction, and the elevated cost of put protection suggests that smart money is hedging against downside risk. ETH futures de-risking is a red flag — if traders are losing conviction in the second-largest cryptocurrency, it signals broader weakness. The altcoin season indicator at 37 means capital is not rotating, which means the rally relies entirely on Bitcoin buying. And with open interest flat, there is little new money entering the market to sustain a breakout.
For now, the market is in a wait-and-see mode. The geopolitical news provided a short-term boost, but until Bitcoin can demonstrate sustained buying above 68,000, the path of least resistance remains sideways. Investors should watch the September return of the U.S. Senate — where the Clarity Act could provide a regulatory catalyst — and the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates, which will determine whether the macroeconomic backdrop supports risk assets or chokes them off.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
strait of hormuz reopening is genuinely bullish for oil and risk assets but funding rates this elevated usually mean a squeeze is coming. seen this movie before
Altcoin season index at 37 and people are calling for alts to run. every single time BTC dominance is this high the rotation just doesnt happen. patience.
^ exactly. the basis is negative on most perps which means the squeeze direction is down. longs are paying everyone else to hold their bags
65K holding on geopolitics news feels fragile. last time BTC pumped on a macro headline it gave back 8% within 48 hours. not buying this one