Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-08-10 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.03
0.03
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-86.2%
-86.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (38.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.59)
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.6 | ADX (14) | 14.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.31%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | -8.2% | -18.7% | -18.8% | -52.2% |
| BTC | -1.1% | +2.3% | -5.2% | -29.3% |
| ETH | -0.9% | +11.6% | -11.8% | -37.1% |
| SOL | -2.1% | +14.0% | -6.2% | -45.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,234
RETURN
-31.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -31.8% | -69.5% | -44.3% | 47 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -52.2% | 4,348 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -43.6% | 8,458 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -37.3% | 9,404 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -36.6% | 9,506 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.02 (-6.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-04-19 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-04-20 | SELL | 0.03 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-06 | SELL | 0.04 | +6.1% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 0.04 | +4.7% |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 0.04 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.03 | -3.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-10 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
8 bear factors and zero bull. hard to argue with that. been watching KAS bleed for weeks now
Trend-following systems always look great until the reversal. KAS has bounced from oversold before, medium conviction isnt exactly a death sentence
^ this. calling AVOID at these levels feels late honestly. where was this call at 0.02