Deep Dive Analysis
Solana (SOL)
2026-08-13 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
76.41
76.41
52W HIGH
294.33
294.33
DRAWDOWN
-74.0%
-74.0%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (55.4), rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.25)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high
SOL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 133.32
Low: 60.41
Now: 76.41
Low: 60.41
Now: 76.41
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.4 | ADX (14) | 11.0 |
| 50d MA | 75.75 | 200d MA | 82.54 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 70.69 | Resistance | 78.88 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.68%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | +0.7% | +14.3% | -5.4% | -42.7% |
| BTC | -1.9% | +0.4% | -5.1% | -28.6% |
| ETH | +0.8% | +13.2% | -8.4% | -37.4% |
| SOL | +0.7% | +14.3% | -5.4% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
26,429
RETURN
-24.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -24.5% | -46.8% | -42.5% | 54 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.7% | 13,887 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -31.8% | 23,868 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -27.1% | 25,502 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -30.2% | 24,431 |
SOL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 72.31 (-5.4%) |
| Target 1 | 83.00 (8.6%) |
| Target 2 | 87.00 (13.9%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 77.91 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 75.86 | -2.6% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 73.88 | |
| 2026-07-25 | SELL | 74.43 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-26 | BUY | 76.60 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 74.14 | -3.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 75.97 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 76.21 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 76.41 | |
| END | SELL | 76.41 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-13 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
sol below the 200d and they still call it HOLD? id be trimming here ngl, the death cross alone is enough to stay away
trend following systems always look bad at the bottom though. 50d is still holding which is why its not a full SELL. makes sense to me
true, trend systems always look worst at the turn. ADX 11 is the annoying part though, crab markets bleed you slowly while you wait for confirmation either way
mads recover the 50d is at 75.75 and price is at 76.41. barely above. one bad candle and its a death cross confirmation. not exactly a strong hold signal
mads the 50d at 75.75 with price at 76.41 is a 1pct cushion. thats not a hold thats a coin flip with extra steps
76 bucks for SOL is wild when you remember it hit 290 in nov 2021. held my bag since 140, not selling now lol
svg_trader held since 140 and SOL is at 76. thats a 45pct unrealized loss. the HOLD rating is doing serious heavy lifting here
held since 140 is a sunk cost exhibit at this point. the 50d at 75.75 is the line in the sand, lose it and this HOLD flips to SELL fast
Calling 75.75 the line when price has sat within a percent of it all week is just describing the present. A level you are already touching is not support.
74% drawdown from 294 and the system still says HOLD. ADX at 11 is basically no trend, you are just sitting in a crab market paying opportunity cost
SOL at 76 with ADX at 11 means the trend system is literally telling you nothing is happening. you are holding through a crab market hoping for a breakout
price pinning the 50d for a week with ADX at 11 is the textbook definition of directionless. cheap options premiums here if you actually have a directional view
premiums are cheap because the market knows the range is coiled. the break usually comes right after everyone sells their straddles in frustration
sold mine too last week and instantly regretted it, thats usually the local bottom of patience lol
cheap premiums plus a level that has been touched 20 times is exactly when straddle buyers show up late. agree on the coil read, just dont expect the article to tell you which way it breaks
sold my straddles last week out of exactly that frustration. this comment better not end up being the signal lol
adx 11 with 20 touches of 75.75, the market is daring someone to be first. whoever blinks sets the direction for everyone laddered along that line
kenji_rl_ whoever blinks sets direction for everyone laddered at 75.75, which is exactly why nobody blinks. the coil can outlive all of our attention spans
adx at 11 and we still got 800 words. the honest call is that nothing is happening, set an alert and go touch grass
touching a level 20 times without losing it is also just how accumulation looks. support until it isnt
accumulation and distribution look identical until the range breaks. 20 touches could just as easily be one seller unloading into every bounce at 75.75
if its one seller unloading into every bounce the tape would show it, prints have been small and even. reads more like a two sided standoff than distribution
Mai T. small even prints also describe one patient seller scaling out quietly. two sided standoff or a drip feed, the tape alone doesnt settle it, OI would
HOLD with 800 words of analysis and ADX still pinned at 11. The honest verdict is set an alert on 75.75 and go touch grass until it fires.
Pekka V. go touch grass is the correct trading advice for adx 11. problem is the grass costs the same as my sol bags did at 140