Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-08-14 15:32 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.58
1.58
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-80.8%
-80.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, RSI weak (36.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.8)
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.71
Low: 0.86
Now: 1.58
Low: 0.86
Now: 1.58
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.0 | ADX (14) | 15.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.81 | 200d MA | 1.59 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.54 | Resistance | 2.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.68%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | -12.4% | -21.2% | +26.9% | -7.4% |
| BTC | -2.4% | -1.5% | -9.3% | -29.9% |
| ETH | +0.2% | +12.0% | -11.6% | -38.7% |
| SOL | +1.8% | +12.6% | -8.2% | -43.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
17,952
RETURN
-48.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -48.7% | -55.4% | -59.2% | 54 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -7.4% | 20,446 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -4.2% | 33,513 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -3.9% | 33,624 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.7% | 31,952 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.43 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (26.4%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (26.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 1.60 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 1.58 | -1.5% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-14 15:32 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
43% win rate across 54 trades and a -48.7% backtest, and the conclusion is still just SELL. ADX at 15 means the market is chopping, any MA crossover setup bleeds in conditions like that.
ADX at 15 chop is exactly when that -22.2% may trade happens. the system needs a trend strength filter, half these entries below 20 ADX are pure noise
an adx filter above 20 would have cut half of the 54 trades and most of the losers. the system feels one boolean away from being tradeable
^ one boolean. ADX above 20 filters half the 54 trades and most of the losers, that -48.7% backtest probably turns tolerable. shipping the SELL without it feels backwards
the system loses either way. its not conviction its a rule set. the +26.9% 6mo vs -48.7% backtest gap is the real story here
Price at 1.58 with the 200d MA at 1.59, this thing is literally sitting on the line. Lose it and 1.54 goes fast, hold it and 2.08 is the next fight. Fair rating from Schmidt either way.
sat on that exact line for a week now. whichever way it breaks the algos will overreact, enjoy the wick
backtest bought at 2.54 in late may and rode it all the way down to a 1.98 exit, -22.2%. signals like this are always paying for the last move lol
the may 21 trade did +13.2% with the same signals tho. crossovers bleed in chop and print when a real trend finally shows up, the 15 ADX says everything rn
6 month return is +26.9% though. The SELL flip came after price slipped a cent under the 200d MA at 1.59. Feels like the signal is chasing the move down instead of leading it.
would you rather they wait for a -20% confirmation dump before flipping SELL? support at 1.54 is one bad candle away, staying out is the cheap trade here
everyone watching the same 1.54 line means it wont hold clean. sweep the lows, take the stops, then decide. usual playbook on these
every MA crossover system lags by design tho. you give up the first 10% of a trend to avoid holding through stretches like that -48.7% backtest. pick your poison
thats the honest tradeoff. no crossover system catches the 1.54 break clean, you eat the lag or you eat the whipsaws
was holding a bag from the 8.24 days. 80% down and the article still had to remind me its stage 4. thanks i guess lol
The 3 month table is the damning part. ETH +12, SOL +12.6, NEAR -21.2. When everything around you rallies and you bleed, that says more than any golden cross.
relative weakness is undefeated. tho with ADX at 15 this is more of a slow bleed than a flush, somehow feels worse
the table is damning but its also the bear case already priced. -21.2 vs ETH +12 means sellers had months to leave. until NEAR reclaims 1.59 with volume the tape agrees with schmidt
-21 while everything around it grinds up is exactly when the mean reversion crowd shows up yelling about oversold. count me out until it reclaims something with actual volume
ETH +12 and SOL +12.6 over 3 months while NEAR bled -21.2. at some point relative strength IS the signal. 1.54 is the line in the sand now
Sizing a full 35k deploy behind a sell rating on a token already down 21 pct vs its sector is bold. hope readers paper traded this one
price at 1.58 with the 200d at 1.59 and ADX at 15, the honest call is no trade. sizing a 35k deploy into a coin that flat cant pick a direction is the boldest part of this whole piece
A SELL rating after the token already bled 21% against its sector reads like chasing the drawdown. The underperformance is in the price. The interesting question is what changes the trend, and the article skips that.
the thesis is literally the level. reclaim 1.59 with volume and the SELL loses its legs, lose 1.54 and it prints. no narrative required either way
Everyone arguing direction while ADX sits at 15 and price is pinned between 1.54 and the 200d at 1.59. Chop punishes conviction on both sides, the daily close outside the range is the actual signal.