Deep Dive Analysis
Uniswap (UNI)
2026-08-14 17:19 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0.0%
-0.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 0 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.83)
UNI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.4 | ADX (14) | 18.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.03%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| UNI | -6.9% | -16.0% | -18.9% | — |
| BTC | -2.4% | -1.5% | -9.3% | -29.9% |
| ETH | +0.2% | +12.0% | -11.6% | -38.7% |
| SOL | +1.8% | +12.6% | -8.2% | -43.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| UNI | +0.0% | -13.8% | 0.0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (UNI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 12,937 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -6.2% | 14,074 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -3.1% | 14,532 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -5.4% | 14,186 |
UNI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-5.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-14 17:19 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
uniswap doing -16% on 3m while eth prints +12% is rough. death cross plus OBV heading down, the WAIT call is correct imo
agree on the eth comparison, uniswap barely participates in rallies anymore. obv down + 0.83 vol ratio says sellers still in control, no rush
Your OBV read lines up with the volume ratio. Sellers stay in control until a real catalyst lands, and the only one left is the fee switch vote.
obv flat while price grinds lower is the sneaky part. distribution already finished and nobody told the chartists, bounce risk here beats breakdown risk
0 bull factors out of 6 and the verdict is ‘wait, no clear edge’. death cross + OBV distribution while ETH does +12, i think thats spelled s-e-l-l
rsi 46, adx under 19, thats chop city. shorting this gets you funding-farmed before the real move
held UNI since the airdrop and the -18.9% over 6 months hurts to look at. at what point does a stage 4 downtrend become a buy? genuinely asking
Rule from years of chart watching: stage 4 downtrends resolve slower than you expect. ADX at 18.8 means no trend worth trading anyway, patience is the position.
patience is a position until it isnt. i held chop like this for months once, funding bled me dry before the trend ever showed up. adx 18.8 is the market telling you to wait
The funding bleed point is underrated. Spot holders survived that chop fine while perps traders got shredded. ADX 18.8 with the fee switch unresolved rewards doing nothing.
Doina when OBV stops making lower lows while price does. until then the only real buy trigger on UNI is the fee switch activating, and we have waited years for that one
the fee switch would change the math but labs would rather ship another wallet than share lp revenue with governance. been hearing ‘soon’ since the univ3 launch
Doina my rule is you dont catch stage 4 knives. wait for the 50d to flatten and a real higher low first, boring is how you keep whatever airdrop gains you have left
RSI at 46 and ADX under 19, this is basically trendless chop. Agree with holding the 15k, deploying into a falling 50d rarely ends well.
The backtest result is the funniest part. Zero trades, 0% return, and it still beats buy and hold by nearly 14 points. Sometimes the best trade is the one you never take.
zero trades beating buy and hold by 14 points should be tattooed on every perp trader. sometimes the edge is the off button
the off button lmao. every univ3 backtest i ran got eaten alive by gas and rebalancing costs. holding through the chop was the actual trade
same experience here. my univ3 range orders bled more in gas and failed txs than impermanent loss ever cost me. plain hodl beat the fancy strategy by miles
14 points of outperformance for doing literally nothing is the most honest backtest ive seen. no signals, no whipsaws, just the trend doing the talking
the bot that did nothing beat the traders doing something by 14 points. meanwhile UNI is down 18.9 percent over 6 months while ETH prints +12. holding really is a strategy
-18.9% over 6 months while ETH prints +12 and the treasury collects fees UNI holders will never see. the chart is just the receipt, the fee switch is the actual trade
HOLD with zero trades beating active management by 14 points is the most honest UNI take in months. The fee switch has been ‘two quarters away’ since 2021 though
UNI on hold with the fee switch vote as the only catalyst left is basically waiting for a 2021 rerun. still remember the delegation snapshot hype, hope this one actually executes
Third year holding UNI and the fee switch is still somewhere on the roadmap. v4 volume is real, the token captures none of it. Tomas can plan the 15k all he wants, the asset itself is the open question
v4 hooks printing volume receipts the token will never touch is the whole tragedy in one line. governance without cash flow rights is a suggestion box