Deep Dive Analysis
VeChain (VET)
2026-08-15 11:46 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.08
0.08
DRAWDOWN
-94.3%
-94.3%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (43.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
VET Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.5 | ADX (14) | 11.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.23%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| VET | -3.4% | -11.5% | -36.8% | -63.3% |
| BTC | -2.1% | -2.2% | -8.5% | -30.3% |
| ETH | +0.3% | +11.8% | -10.8% | -38.6% |
| SOL | +1.0% | +9.2% | -6.2% | -43.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,603
RETURN
-29.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| VET | -29.3% | -83.2% | -36.0% | 39 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (VET)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -63.3% | 2,750 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -58.9% | 6,165 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -50.9% | 7,369 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -50.1% | 7,478 |
VET Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-6.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-17 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2025-09-18 | SELL | 0.03 | +2.7% |
| 2025-09-19 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2025-09-20 | SELL | 0.02 | -1.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-08 | SELL | 0.01 | +4.3% |
| 2026-05-09 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-10 | SELL | 0.01 | +4.5% |
| 2026-05-11 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | 0.01 | -3.6% |
| 2026-05-13 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-15 11:46 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0 bull factors out of 7, brutal lol. still holding a vet bag from 2018, this chart only knows one direction and it aint up
94% drawdown and still holding since 2018 is not conviction, its a hostage situation lmao. cut it loose
hostage situation lol. took my exit at 0.02 and sleeping fine, no regrets watching this from outside
blockhole the hostage situation joke is accurate but you are underestimating sunk cost psychology. at -94% there is literally nothing to recover so selling locks in the loss with zero upside optionality
2018 bag here too. past a certain point holding stops being a strategy and becomes your whole personality
held this bag since the 0.08 days and the -94.3% drawdown stat is just my portfolio in screenshot form. 7 bear factors and zero bulls, brutal but fair
felt the 0.08 reference in my bones. the 1Y is what gets me, -63.3% while ETH printed +11.8% on the 3M. rotating out of vet is just math at this point
Confused by this report. Headline says avoid, do not deploy, then it hands me a 3,750 position size with two tranches. Which is it?
^ Exactly the issue with these auto-generated reports. Saw the same thing last cycle with the Litecoin one. The stop loss at -6.5% is fine but the whole plan should just say stay out.
the 3,750 sizing is the default risk template talking, not the signal itself. agree its confusing when AVOID and heres a position share the same page
same confusion here. i think the position only deploys if price reclaims the 200d, otherwise its paper. sloppy design either way
The ADX at 11.7 is the interesting part. A trend-following SELL on a market with barely any trend is asking for chop, see the May log: in at 0.01, out at -3.6% two days later.
ADX 11.7 with a SELL flag is how you get chopped to bits in a sideways grind. and calling Stage 4 at -94% is fashionably late to say the least
adx under 12 and the backtest still lost 29 net, thats the whole argument. sideways markets eat trend systems alive no matter what flag you put on it
quant_aggrieved an ADX of 11.7 on a SELL flag chopped me out of enough sideways markets to know this is a no trade zone wearing a signal costume
0 bull factors out of 7 is the most honest scoreboard ive seen on these reports. they usually invent two green boxes out of politeness
46% win rate across 39 trades and the backtest still lost 29%. whipsawn to death, legend behavior
ADX under 12 means the trend system has nothing to trade on. SELL call is just describing the drawdown, not a signal
0 bull factors out of 7 and the only debate in here is whether to sell now or back in 2019. supply chain blockchain was a great ppt deck tho
price field literally prints 0.00 and honestly thats the most accurate bear case on the page. held since the 2018 supply chain rumors, still waiting
^ the 2018 crowd deserves a medal or a therapist. enterprise blockchain achieved zero token capture and somehow the conferences kept selling out
39 backtested trades, 46 percent win rate, net minus 29. at some point the data is just telling you vet doesnt trend and never did
15k portfolio on a SELL rating is an odd flex but at least tomas covered the enterprise angle instead of just drawing arrows down
39 backtested trades to conclude VET doesnt trend is 39 more than the bagholders holding since the 2018 supply chain rumors ever ran
39 trades, 46% win rate, net negative, and the conclusion was still SELL instead of no signal. the honest flag would be a shrug emoji