Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
2026-08-28 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
7.74
7.74
52W HIGH
39.92
39.92
DRAWDOWN
-80.6%
-80.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (62.5), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 45.7)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.64)
ETC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 12.37
Low: 6.02
Now: 7.74
Low: 6.02
Now: 7.74
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 62.5 | ADX (14) | 45.7 |
| 50d MA | 6.85 | 200d MA | 7.88 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 6.02 | Resistance | 9.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.66%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETC | +19.4% | +6.8% | -6.1% | -37.5% |
| BTC | +23.0% | +33.0% | +8.1% | -9.7% |
| ETH | +30.6% | +58.5% | +10.3% | -16.1% |
| SOL | +44.7% | +48.3% | +27.5% | -15.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
27,529
RETURN
-21.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETC | -21.3% | -55.7% | -31.0% | 49 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -37.5% | 12,930 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -30.8% | 24,223 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -27.6% | 25,346 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -24.9% | 26,268 |
ETC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 6.77 (-12.5%) |
| Target 1 | 9.00 (16.4%) |
| Target 2 | 10.00 (29.3%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.12) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 8.91 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 8.94 | +0.3% |
| 2026-07-26 | BUY | 7.09 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 6.79 | -4.2% |
| 2026-08-22 | BUY | 7.90 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 7.95 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 7.75 | |
| 2026-08-25 | SELL | 7.66 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 7.89 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 7.85 | -0.5% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 7.74 | |
| END | SELL | 7.74 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-28 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
etc down 80% from the 39.92 high and the system still calls it stage 3 topping. holders cant catch a break
^ meanwhile obv says distribution through the whole rip. volume ratio 0.64, someone is selling into this
obv diverging on an 80 percent drawdown rally is textbook. someone with size is using the bounce as an exit ramp
obv is lag soup on illiquid books like etc. one etf flow headline and the whole accumulation read flips overnight
The death cross against a rising 50d is exactly why I stopped trading this one by hand. Conflicting signals, system says wait. Fair enough.
rsi 62.5 and adx 45.7 and the verdict is still just HOLD. this thing wants the 9.04 test so bad
9.04 is roughly the 0.382 off the 39.92 top. if that flips the whole stage 3 topping call falls apart fast
if 9.04 rejects, next real support is somewhere in the 6 area. that 6.77 stop is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this plan
thats why you size it like a lottery ticket and stop pretending its a swing trade. the banner literally says low conviction, the stop is decoration
a 6.77 stop on a chart this volatile isnt decoration, its a suggestion. gap risk alone makes the 6.02 floor the level that actually matters
0.382 off the 39.92 top is also where the heavy resistance clusters. If ETC reclaims that zone the death cross argument dies and the six bull factors suddenly look less silly
9.04 flips and every stage 3 call on this chart gets marked to market real quick. ETC loves invalidating the patient
80% down from 39.92 and they still call it HOLD with 6 bull factors. trend following is wild
the 6 bull factors are all short term momentum stuff. price under the 200d with a death cross is the only line that actually matters here
disagree, the slope of the 200d matters way more than the cross itself. and that 0.64 volume ratio cuts both ways, thin sell pressure is thin buy pressure too
six bull factors on a death cross chart is the system shrugging. 9.04 is the whole trade, under it you are just renting bags you dont want
six bull factors on an 80 percent drawdown is the system being polite. everything rides on 9.04, one daily close above and the death cross crowd goes quiet overnight
rsi 62.5 on a coin 80 percent off its high. the true believers never left, thats the part that spooks me
Strategy lost 21% while buy and hold lost 55%. that is the one decent argument here, the system at least softened the damage
@Trond 37% win rate over 49 trades though, that is basically coin flipping with extra steps
a coin flip that still beat holding by 34 points. thats the part nobody in the ETC camp wants to admit
37 percent win rate still beat holding by 34 points because the losers were small. thats literally how trend systems work
win rate cope aside, that only works if you actually take the 6.77 stop every single time. one skipped stop and the 34 point edge is gone
Stop at 6.77 with support listed at 6.02 feels optimistic. that gap gets blown through in one red candle
etc hashrate holding while price sits 80 percent off the 39.92 top is the only fundamental keeping this off the obituary page. miners clearly know something the chart doesnt
0.382 at 9.04 keeps getting mentioned and for good reason. one clean daily close above and this whole stage 3 thing evaporates