Bitcoin may have just closed the book on its 2026 bear market, according to one of the most closely watched onchain analysts in the industry. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, declared that “the Bitcoin bear cycle is over” after the firm’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator printed its first positive reading in roughly ten months.
The signal arrived on Wednesday, when the indicator ticked into bullish territory for the first time since early October 2025. As of August 26, the most recent date for which full data is available, the reading stood at 0.042 — a modest number, but one that carries significant weight given the indicator’s track record.
What the Indicator Actually Measures
The Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s P&L Index, which was originally devised by the firm’s head of research. The index aggregates several of the most widely followed onchain profitability metrics, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Together, these measures paint a picture of whether Bitcoin investors, in aggregate, are sitting on profits or losses.
The cycle indicator itself measures the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day moving average. Readings above zero correspond to bullish phases of the Bitcoin price cycle, when network-wide profitability is improving, while readings below zero mark bearish phases.
The depth of this year’s downturn is visible in the data. On February 5, as BTC tumbled to the 60,000 USD level and market sentiment collapsed to its lowest point since the Luna crash, the indicator bottomed at -1.244 — a reading CryptoQuant classifies as extreme bear territory. The climb from that low to a positive 0.042 represents a sustained, months-long recovery in realized and unrealized profitability across the network.
Echoes of 2023
For Ki Young Ju, the significance of the signal lies in its historical precedent. The same combination of P&L metrics and their 365-day moving averages successfully called the end of the previous bear market, when upside returned to Bitcoin in early 2023 after the collapse of the FTX exchange and a brutal two-year drawdown. The current breakout from negative to positive territory repeats that recovery pattern, suggesting the macro trend may have genuinely turned.
The CryptoQuant signal is not an isolated data point. Bitcoin’s relative strength index has also been flashing constructive signals in recent weeks, with a bullish divergence pattern that some analysts compare to conditions at the end of 2022. The asset has climbed back toward the 80,000 USD area in August, and exchange-traded fund products have attracted multi-billion-dollar inflows during an eight-day buying streak as institutional demand returns.
Skeptics Push Back on Liquidity Concerns
Not everyone is convinced. A chorus of analysts warns that Bitcoin’s recovery still faces a demanding obstacle course overhead. Glassnode has flagged that multiple trend lines and liquidity structures converge just above the current spot price, keeping upside in check and presenting what it calls a true demand test above the 83,000 USD level. Until Bitcoin can absorb the supply clustered in that zone, the argument goes, any trend-change call remains premature.
Others point to demand-side weakness as the key question. If new buyer interest fails to keep pace with coins being spent by long-term holders taking profits, the recent rally could stall and revert to downside.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital framed the stakes in terms of the calendar, arguing that the August monthly close will be pivotal for the recovery’s fate. The market is testing a downward-sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October of last year, and a decisive monthly close above it would validate the bullish case in a way that intraday breakouts cannot.
Why Onchain Profitability Matters
At its core, the CryptoQuant signal is a measure of pain relief. Bear markets end not when prices stop falling, but when the average coin holder stops being underwater. When MVRV, NUPL and SOPR collectively swing positive, it means coins are moving at a profit, seller exhaustion has set in, and the marginal seller is no longer a forced liquidator but a willing participant.
Whether or not the 2026 bear market is formally declared over by historians, the first bullish crossover in ten months on one of the industry’s benchmark indicators — validated against the 2023 recovery playbook — marks a meaningful shift in the onchain backdrop. The burden of proof now shifts to the demand side of the market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
0.042 and ten months of red suddenly over? Ki Young Ju gets the benefit of the doubt from me, his 2022 calls were early but right
first positive reading since october 2025 and its only 0.042. ku young ju called the 2023 bottom right though, i give the signal more credit than the price action tbh
the february bottom at -1.244 was the extreme bear reading. climbing from that to positive in six months says something real, compare it to the 2022 grind
0.042 is barely above zero and we’re already popping champagne? Ki Young Ju has called turns early before. Give me two more weekly prints before I believe the bear is dead
two more weekly prints is two more weeks of waiting while funds front run the confirmation. the feb 5 low already paid the patient
fair skepticism but the P&L index crossing back above its 365d MA after ten months is the actual signal, not the size of the number. bottoms start ugly like this
two more weekly prints is fair but the feb 5 low already did the confirming imo. NUPL crawling off extremes is the part everyone doubts too late
These cycle indicators always flip bullish after the move already started. I will get excited on a retest of the 365 day average, seen this movie before.
a retest would be the healthier path sure, but funds front run confirmation, they aint waiting for a clean second entry
Flip after the move starts is how every major bottom indicator works though. Waiting for textbook confirmation means buying the top of the first leg.
2026 chop is the real lesson though. The signal was right and holders still went nowhere for months.
Last time this indicator flipped bullish after a bear stretch the leg ran for months. With MVRV and SOPR turning together I’m not fading this one
last flip ran for months, sure, but 2026 chopped sideways after the signal. hold the coins, delay the leverage
hold coins delay leverage is exactly it. feb 5 proved the signal, the 2026 chop proved you still needed the patience half
Respect the track record, but declaring the bear over off August 26 data when we saw 60k back on Feb 5 feels brave. Scale in, don’t go all in on one reading
fair on scaling in, but that feb 60k low is exactly why this reading matters. NUPL crawling out of an extreme is usually the tell nobody trusts yet
the deeper signal is NUPL climbing out of the waterline. by the time it feels confirmed you already missed the move from the lows
waterline read is right but remember ki young ju called the capitulation zone well before the feb 5 60k bounce. if NUPL holds above water through september im treating the october signal flip as confirmed, not before
scaling in is the sane play but feb 5 was 60k and we never looked back. sometimes the first signal is the only one you get priced decently
feb 5 rewarded the impatient exactly once. scaling in keeps you in the game when the signal flips back in three weeks
ki young ju flipping bullish off the P&L index crossing its 365d MA while everyone waits for textbook confirmation. the last three cycle turns all looked premature too
0.042 off a -1.244 february extreme is a big swing in six months. the size of the print matters less than the slope
0.042 after ten months underwater and people want a stronger number. the whole point of the P&L index crossing its 365d MA is that it starts small
starts small is the whole lesson of october 2025 too. the print that matters is the slope off -1.244, not the 0.042 headline
ki young ju called the last top early too. the indicator printing bullish in august feels more like a bear market rally flag than a bottom