Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-08-29 15:26 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (59.1), rising 1m & 3m, vol 8.55x on up day
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 54.9), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.8)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.1 | ADX (14) | 54.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 50.5%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | +1883.8% | +3206.4% | +39.7% | -40.0% |
| BTC | +20.1% | +29.9% | +5.5% | -11.8% |
| ETH | +27.8% | +55.1% | +8.0% | -17.9% |
| SOL | +42.7% | +46.3% | +25.7% | -16.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -29.5% | -100.0% | 48 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -40.0% | 14,405 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +11.2% | 38,917 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +422.9% | 183,029 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +215.2% | 110,335 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.00 | +4.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -3.5% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -95.7% |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 0.00 | -5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-29 15:26 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
dropping a 35k deployment plan on JUP when its this far under the 0.56 high, bold. dca-ing the dip works until it doesnt
35k under the 0.56 high is bold until you remember JUP does 30 percent weeks like clockwork. half tranches half prayers
half tranches is the only sane play with a 50 percent daily ATR. JUP rewards patience right up until the day it absolutely doesnt
+1883% in a month and still -40% on the year. this chart went through hell before the pump, respect
+1883 percent in a month after being -40 on the year, this chart is bipolar. oliver picking entries way under 0.56 is bold
+1883 in a month is exactly why id size it smaller not bigger. the engine buying after that move is buying the top of the relief leg, tranches or not
Oliver always frames these as buys near the bottom. Sometimes he is right, my 2024 JUP bags say otherwise
^ bold of you to admit holding since 2024 lmao. but yeah the buy call here is basically a leveraged bet on solana volumes picking back up
How do you square a HIGH conviction BUY with a death cross and ADX 54.9 pointing at a strong bear trend? Genuinely asking, the signals contradict each other.
the answer to Ines is the 8.55x volume bar. crosses are lagging math on old candles, a volume burst like that is current information. still wouldnt lump 35k in one go tho
Same thought on the contradiction, Ines. But that 8.55x volume on an up day is the kind of thing that flips an ADX reading fast.
it contradicts because the plan is momentum chasing in a dca costume. adx 54.9 on a death cross is a trend, not a dip
its not a costume if the plan says 50 percent ATR sized tranches lol. momentum chasing with position limits is just called trading
had the same question. the 8.55x volume spike is the answer imo, volume shows up before the cross confirms, thats the buy case
trend following ignores crosses by design. price over both averages with a rising 50d wins, ADX just says the prior bear move was strong, it lags too
buying the death cross IS the system. these engines fade exhaustion, everyone in here treating a lagging cross like news
@Ines Bal these systems buy trend exhaustion, so death cross plus ADX 54.9 is exactly when the counter trend entries fire. stretched moves mean revert hard. still feels like catching a knife with a 50.5 percent ATR tho
think of it as buying the exhaustion of the down move. death cross plus 8.55x green volume usually means the sellers spent their bullets
50.5% daily ATR. one bad candle and your 35k deployment plan needs a rewrite
50 percent daily ATR on a 35k plan is just dca with extra steps. hope those tranches are sized tiny
50.5% ATR is why you deploy in tranches and dont drop all 35k on one candle lol
atr like that is why the tranche sizing exists. a 35k plan survives one bad candle, a lump sum doesnt
the whole bull case is price above a rising 50d and 200d with an 8.55x volume day. the death cross is old data, trend systems trade what price is doing now
8.55x volume spike on the day the death cross printed is the most JUP chart possible. both signals firing at once, pick your fighter
+1883 percent in a month and still under 0.56. the entry math checks out but 50 percent ATR means the stop placement must be hilarious