Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-08-29 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.68
0.68
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-91.8%
-91.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 0 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, RSI weak (44.8), far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.37
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.68
Low: 0.61
Now: 0.68
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.8 | ADX (14) | 23.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.72 | 200d MA | 0.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.61 | Resistance | 0.86 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.29%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +0.0% | -8.1% | -24.6% | -50.2% |
| BTC | +20.1% | +29.9% | +5.5% | -11.8% |
| ETH | +27.8% | +55.1% | +8.0% | -17.9% |
| SOL | +42.7% | +46.3% | +25.7% | -16.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
11,921
RETURN
-20.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-30.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | -20.5% | -77.4% | -30.1% | 39 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -50.2% | 4,518 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -46.8% | 7,978 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -40.7% | 8,892 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -39.6% | 9,066 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.60 (-12.6%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (46.3%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (46.3%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-15 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-05-16 | SELL | 0.97 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.96 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.94 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.97 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.01 | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-23 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -2.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 0.98 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 1.01 | +2.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 0.81 | |
| 2026-08-22 | SELL | 0.76 | -5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-29 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-91.8% from the 52w high and it still can’t hold 0.72? the 50d MA rejection is textbook, staying out
That backtest is brutal. Strategy loses 20.5% but buy and hold loses 77.4%. Kind of proves the point of the SELL call honestly.
@Bartosz exactly, and check the trade log. 39 trades at 46% win rate, most of the last entries stopped out within a day. this thing chops both ways
strategy -20.5% vs hold -77.4% and people in here still arguing with the rating lol. fading the system is a personality trait at this point
46 percent win rate over 39 trades and the strategy still beats hold by 57 points. thats not a good system, thats just how bad the asset is
46 percent win rate with positive expectancy is literally how trend systems work, the wins just need to be bigger than the losses
the brutal take is both things are true. trend following on FIL is mediocre and the asset is worse, that combo is the whole sell rating
to be fair fading the system on FIL has cost people 57 points plus the -77 hold. the personality trait paid for itself here
also worth noting the stop sits at 0.60 and support is 0.61. one flush candle through 0.61 and everyone following this plan exits into the same hole
91.8% drawdown and still 0 bull factors out of 7. brutal but honest. most FIL content is still cope about storage deals that never moved price
Totally agree. It hit 8.38 on narrative and the actual utilization numbers never came close to justifying that. 0.68 feels fair, maybe generous
still remember when storage deal announcements used to print 20% days for FIL. now 0.68 is the ceiling and 0.72 is a wishlist. hard pass until something actually changes
the second any storage deal moves price again ill believe the meta came back. until then 0.72 is a fantasy wall
bought at 6 bucks in 2025 bc a youtuber said storage was the next meta. -89% later, this analysis is just salt in the wound lol
bought at 6 because a youtuber said so… yeah i lived that exact story with my 2021 bags. at least this sell call came before another -50%
same story, bought 6 dollars off a storage narrative thread in 2025. the 0.68 price is just the receipt
Stage 4 downtrend with high conviction sell… anyone still holding this needs a plan, not hopium. great breakdown Tomas
paid 5.8 in the 2021 mania, averaged twice on the way down because ‘storage is needed’. this sell call is 3 years late for me but accurate
5.8 gang checking in, at least you averaged into the 1s. some of us kept the 2021 basis untouched out of pure spite lol
the spite hodl is real, kept my 2021 basis too. reading a stage 4 label three years late hits different lol
the storage-is-needed line got so many of us. averaged from 4 down to 1.2 and still underwater at 0.68
fading a 57 point backtest gap is wild. the system can be mediocre and still be right about this one
57pt gap closes three times before lunch on FIL lol. still, shorting into a 0.68 floor with that R/R is the sane side of this trade
0.72 rejection at the 50d after that backtest is all i needed to see. no storage catalyst, no bid, no thanks
0.61 as support while the yearly low is 0.61. thin margin for a HIGH conviction call, though 0 out of 7 bull factors is hard to argue with