Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
79723.20
79723.20
52W HIGH
126198.07
126198.07
DRAWDOWN
-36.8%
-36.8%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (66.6), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 46.5), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.94)
Bearish factors: death cross, MACD-, far below high
BTC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 87835.84
Low: 52598.70
Now: 79723.20
Low: 52598.70
Now: 79723.20
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 66.6 | ADX (14) | 46.5 |
| 50d MA | 69092.74 | 200d MA | 69683.49 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 62487.70 | Resistance | 82262.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.93%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BTC | +26.5% | +26.4% | +3.0% | -9.2% |
| BTC | +26.5% | +26.4% | +3.0% | -9.2% |
| ETH | +30.6% | +38.1% | +6.7% | -16.7% |
| SOL | +36.7% | +26.0% | +21.3% | -17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
33,202
RETURN
-5.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BTC | -5.1% | -8.9% | -25.7% | 70 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BTC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -9.2% | 25,315 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +2.8% | 35,973 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.0% | 33,609 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.3% | 35,095 |
BTC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 75054.38 (-5.9%) |
| Target 1 | 86726.00 (8.8%) |
| Target 2 | 91395.00 (14.6%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 69266.19 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 73032.76 | +5.4% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 77830.29 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 78245.81 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 77667.57 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 78548.63 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 77403.62 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 77300.48 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 81271.74 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 79671.97 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 79723.20 | |
| END | SELL | 79723.20 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
79.7k entry betting the fourth attempt at 82k works. vol ratio 1.94 says buyers are still there, but this is the least comfortable BUY card of the week
death cross still active and this thing prints BUY? trend systems are wild lol. RSI 66 with ADX 46 tho, momentum is hard to argue with
the backtest only enters above a rising 50d, death cross is just the exit trigger. read the rules before mocking the signal
the rules are public tho, death cross exit plus rising 50d entry is exactly why the card says BUY at 79.7k. mock the signal after reading it at least
RSI at 66.6 and a death cross still sitting on the bear list, yet the system prints HIGH conviction BUY. trend following will be the death of me
the system buys strength not crosses, death cross is just the last exit flag. still funny seeing it on the same card as HIGH conviction tho
@0xgallows ADX at 46.5 means trend strength is real, the death cross lags by months. im long here, 79.7k holds or it doesnt
ADX 46.5 with a vol ratio under 2 is barely momentum, watched this exact setup fade at the 82k wall twice this month already. half size or nothing
half size at the fourth attempt is how you end up with full regret at 84k. base size and honor the 7.5 percent stop, that is the whole deal
Stop at 7.5% below entry with targets at 11.3% and 18.8% is a sane structure. My worry is these Stage 2 calls flip back to Stage 1 inside a week and you eat the stop for nothing.
stage regression is the killer, a stage 2 stamp lasts exactly until the next lower low. the 7.5 percent stop at least respects that
Stage flips are the real risk here. The 7.5 percent stop is the only honest line on the whole card.
Fair point on stage regression, but the 7.5 percent stop caps the damage at roughly 2,600 on the 35k portfolio. That is the whole trade.
36.8% below the 126k high and its still stage 2 uptrend. been waiting for a retest of 62k support all month, 82k resistance is the line that matters now
82k is the whole game like you said. clear that and 126k is back on the table, reject and we chop around 69k for weeks
chop at 69k for weeks is the base case if 82k rejects again, agreed. but obv climbing through all those rejections says buyers are absorbing, id lean breakout
OBV climbing through three rejections at 82k is the strongest tell on this chart honestly. supply keeps getting eaten at the same wall
fourth rejection at 82k with obv still climbing feels different than the first three. supply has to run out eventually
62k retest hope is cope at this point, three higher lows since the 82k rejections. either it breaks 82k now or chops sideways, no deep retest coming imo
been waiting all month for the 62k retest and it never comes. obv says the base got built at 75k+, maybe adjust the plan
79.7k entry with a stop 7.5 percent below and targets out to 18.8. the 82k wall decides everything, three rejections there this month already
vol ratio 1.94 with OBV climbing is the only part of this writeup I actually trust. the moving averages are just lagging paint
fourth try at 82k with vol ratio still at 1.94. the weakest hands are gone, one more push and this wall finally cracks
fourth attempt at a wall with OBV still climbing usually resolves itself, its the sideways chop that kills the signal before the wall does
RSI 66.6 with ADX 46.5 is momentum confirmation, the death cross flag is a leftover from the may dump. entry at 79.7k is chasey but the 82k breakout math works