Deep Dive Analysis
Aave (AAVE)
2026-09-08 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
130.72
130.72
52W HIGH
399.07
399.07
DRAWDOWN
-67.2%
-67.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (60.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 45.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.68)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
AAVE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 146.16
Low: 58.05
Now: 130.72
Low: 58.05
Now: 130.72
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 60.9 | ADX (14) | 45.4 |
| 50d MA | 106.25 | 200d MA | 96.95 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 85.17 | Resistance | 144.73 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.28%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AAVE | +49.4% | +45.3% | +40.9% | -10.6% |
| BTC | +21.2% | +23.9% | +2.8% | -10.4% |
| ETH | +29.1% | +39.9% | +9.7% | -16.6% |
| SOL | +33.4% | +27.4% | +23.8% | -17.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
32,226
RETURN
-7.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-41.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AAVE | -7.9% | -29.2% | -41.7% | 52 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AAVE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -10.6% | 15,350 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +9.0% | 38,153 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -1.6% | 34,448 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +9.8% | 38,432 |
AAVE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 116.92 (-10.6%) |
| Target 1 | 151.00 (15.5%) |
| Target 2 | 165.00 (26.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-03 | BUY | 92.28 | |
| 2026-08-04 | SELL | 90.41 | -2.0% |
| 2026-08-05 | BUY | 89.74 | |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | 89.59 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 91.23 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 90.55 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 95.26 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 99.17 | +4.1% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 132.46 | |
| 2026-08-25 | SELL | 126.27 | -4.7% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 127.03 | |
| END | SELL | 130.72 | +2.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-08 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
buy signal on something still 67% below its high, thats some conviction. ADX 45 is strong tho ill give em that
@lendoledo golden cross plus RSI at 60 is fine until you remember MACD is still negative. 8 bull factors and they buried the one bearish signal lol
Been lending on Aave v3 since the fees switched on. The token chart is one thing, the protocol revenue is why I would not short this
entry at 127 with an end sell at 130.72, a whole 2.9% target. daring stuff lmao
the tight target is the tell imo. 2.9% upside means the model expects a stall right around 131, thats scalper logic on a position sized entry
2.9% target lmao. to be fair the end range tracks the 20d band so it moves, but yeah slim margin for a 35k stack
2.9% target is scalper math on a 35k stack yeah. model basically expects a stall right under 131 then waits for the next gate
scalper targets on a 35k stack is just how these deployment models work, the band updates daily. boring, not wrong
BUY tag on something still 67% off the old high but with real fee revenue now. risk reward works, dropping 35k on one ADX print is the brave part
Still 67% under the old high but fee revenue actually flowing now changes the math vs 2021 AAVE. Laddering in under 128 like the plan lays out
laddering under 128 with a stall expected at 131 is fine, just take profit at the band instead of waiting for conviction to save you. -7.9% backtest did not come from nowhere
agreed on band exits. entries under 128 with a stall modeled at 131, this is a range trade wearing a BUY costume
the fee revenue argument keeps winning me over. every other BUY writeup leans on narrative, this one leans on v3 income, and that is why the 38% win rate bothers me less
nobody mentioning the 2 year backtest came out at -7.9% with a 38% win rate, and that same system is calling HIGH conviction BUY now. ADX 45 is real but the sim literally lost money following these signals
backtest critics always show up after the entry range already moved twice. still, a 38% win rate would keep me at half size, not the full tranche
the -7.9% backtest critiques the label, not the trade. v3 fee revenue is the actual thesis here, the signal is just entry timing
the 2 year backtest window covers the entire 2025 chop, of course it prints negative. sample a trending regime and the same signals look fine
a 2 year window that ends right before the trending regime is still cherry picking, just pointed the bearish way. show both regimes or show nothing
the sim covers the chop regime, the live call is a momentum regime. still fair to demand the signal data before trusting a HIGH conviction tag off one ADX 45 print
the -7.9% sim is the chop regime tax, v3 fees changed the payoff structure mid sample. still agree its not HIGH conviction money off one ADX 45 print
First time since 2021 the AAVE chart maps to actual protocol revenue instead of pure narrative. Direction reads right to me even at half size
v3 fee revenue is real but the buyback depends on governance voting for it every cycle. one sleepy quorum and the token thesis stalls for months
this is the actual risk. one low turnout vote and the buyback stalls while you sit on a 2.9 percent target lol
the buyback vote passed with strong turnout last cycle, the risk is the next reauthorization not the current one. half size until the vote history stacks up is fair tho
38 percent win rate behind a 2.9 percent target means the losers eat the whole year. v3 fee revenue is real but this risk reward screams half size
Buy signal at 130 with resistance at 144 and MACD still red. Id deploy a third of the 35k here and keep the rest for a retest of the 50d around 106. chasing strength 67 percent off the high is how the last batch got stuck
v3 fee revenue finally gives AAVE something like an earnings multiple and the whole thread is fighting over a backtest window. direction seems obvious, sizing is the actual debate