Deep Dive Analysis
Internet Computer (ICP)
2026-09-08 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
3.08
3.08
52W HIGH
15.56
15.56
DRAWDOWN
-80.2%
-80.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 49.5), breakout above upper band, vol 1.9x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.21)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
ICP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.84
Low: 1.98
Now: 3.08
Low: 1.98
Now: 3.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 76.7 | ADX (14) | 49.5 |
| 50d MA | 2.30 | 200d MA | 2.42 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 2.14 | Resistance | 3.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.07%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ICP | +40.2% | +39.4% | +29.4% | +8.5% |
| BTC | +21.4% | +24.1% | +2.9% | -10.3% |
| ETH | +29.7% | +40.5% | +10.2% | -16.2% |
| SOL | +34.1% | +28.1% | +24.4% | -17.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
20,425
RETURN
-41.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-54.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ICP | -41.6% | -49.5% | -54.8% | 66 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ICP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +8.5% | 22,102 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +2.2% | 35,781 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -6.9% | 32,589 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +4.0% | 36,399 |
ICP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.44 (-20.7%) |
| Target 1 | 4.00 (29.9%) |
| Target 2 | 4.00 (29.9%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.73) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 2.39 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 2.48 | +3.9% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 2.35 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 2.40 | +2.3% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 2.48 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 2.47 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 2.52 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 2.47 | -1.8% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 2.67 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 2.73 | +2.3% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 2.99 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 3.08 | +2.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-08 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ICP at 3.08 with the 52w high at 15.56 and the death cross finally fading. the buy is early or insane, ADX 49.5 says the trend voters get to find out
rsi 76.7 and they still call it a buy lmao. entry at 3.08 with resistance literally at 3.12, that is a 1% window before you are buying the local top
RSI 76.7 inside a filter that exits at 82 just means they ride blowoff tops and sell the crash. worked on the way to 15.56 too, briefly
The system explicitly filters RSI up to 75 and exits above 82, so 76.7 is within the band, not above it. Whether the band is right for a coin that is still 80% below its 15.56 high is the real question.
Ran something similar on ICP in 2024. The 50/200 crossover works until it gaps through your stop overnight, which on 5% ATR days happens more than you would like. Position sizing matters more than the signal here.
Agreed on sizing. With ATR above 5% a day and support all the way down at 2.14, half position and add on a retest makes more sense than full deploy at 3.08.
the overnight gap point wins the thread. 35k deployed with stops that only work during trading hours is how one tokyo session deletes the whole thesis
overnight gaps on a 5% ATR coin with stops set from daily closes, yeah. one tokyo candle and the 35k plan needs a rewrite
tokyo open is the stress test nobody schedules for. 5% ATR means your backtest stop is decorative between sessions
the band being technically correct is the problem. a filter that lets you buy 1% under resistance at rsi 76 on a 5% ATR coin is a filter that loves pain
the filter buys up to rsi 75 and exits at 82, riding hot momentum is the whole system. you are not disagreeing with the entry, you are disagreeing with the strategy existing
9 bull factors vs 2 bear and one of the bears is a death cross. cool cool cool. love that for us
the death cross is stale data tho, 50d at 2.30 and rising while price broke the upper band on 1.9x volume. by the time it uncrosses you missed the whole move
buy signal on something 80% off its high is brave, ill give them that. ADX 49.5 is a strong trend tho, not gonna argue with that reading
death cross still on the bear side of the ledger and they call it HIGH conviction? 9 bull factors against 2 bear ones is fine but that 50d at 2.30 crossing under the 200d at 2.42 is the one that worries me
@Lorcan price is above both MAs tho, the death cross is lagging. breakout on 1.9x volume is the part i actually like here
3 months of holding ICP for +39.4% while ETH did +40.5% without the 80% drawdown baggage. chart is fine, opportunity cost is the killer
the real comment. +39.4% while carrying 80% drawdown risk when ETH did +40.5% asleep. this system needs an opportunity cost column
35k ICP at 3.08, resistance at 3.12 basically right overhead. one good candle and this becomes a different chart entirely
two buy ratings on ICP hours apart and both pointing at the same 3.12 resistance. when it clears everyones a genius i guess
support at 2.14 with entry at 3.08 is a 30% hole below on a coin that swings 5% a day. conviction is fine but the sizing math better be sacred here
half at 3.08 and the rest on a 2.14 retest is the actual play. dumping the full 35k one percent under resistance is just praying
this. the system already leans on ADX for conviction, splitting the entry costs nothing statistically and saves you holding the full 3.08 bag if the 2.14 retest never shows
9 bull factors vs 2 bear and both bears are chart problems while every bull is a fundamental. scorecard reads like it was written after the position, not before
two ICP buy calls five hours apart, both staring at the same 3.12 resistance, and only one flags the death cross. some consistency between the desks would be nice