Bitcoin is quietly breaking with typical bear-market behavior, according to one of the most closely watched onchain profitability metrics — and the divergence is fueling a fresh debate over whether the bear market is already over.
Data from analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, has now held above its breakeven level of 1 for three full weeks — the longest bullish streak of 2026. The metric currently sits at 1.002, a tight but decisive reading that indicates coins moving onchain are, on average, being spent at a profit relative to their previous transaction price.
What SOPR is actually telling us
SOPR measures the extent to which bitcoin changing hands does so above or below the price at which it last moved. In practice the metric oscillates in a narrow range around 1. Sustained readings above 1 mean the market is realizing profits — historically a hallmark of bullish momentum, since sellers are taking gains into strength rather than capitulating at losses.
The signal has now endured since Aug. 19, surviving bitcoin’s choppy range trade around the 80,000 USD area and its subsequent test of support near 78,300 USD, where the price stood at the time of writing. Three consecutive weeks above breakeven is unusual in a bear market, where rallies back into profit tend to be aggressively sold.
Onchain analytics suite Checkonchain went further, arguing that the short-term holder version of the metric — which tracks wallets holding coins for up to six months — is printing a structure that resembles previous early bull-market recoveries rather than bear-market relief rallies.
“In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries,” the firm told its followers on X over the weekend.
The bull case, quantified
The SOPR streak adds to a growing body of onchain evidence pointing away from a prolonged bear phase. In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared the bear market effectively “over,” citing the firm’s proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which he noted was copying patterns seen during the 2023 recovery.
Profitability metrics matter because they describe behavior, not just price. A market where coins are consistently spent in profit, without triggering renewed drawdowns, suggests real demand absorbing sell-side pressure — the opposite of the reflexive selling that defines bear markets.
David Puell is not convinced yet
But at least one of the industry’s most respected analysts is holding out for more evidence. David Puell, the ARK Invest portfolio manager who created the widely used Puell Multiple indicator, said in a Sept. 4 interview with CryptoQuant that he still sees “downside risk” for bitcoin despite the August upside, which at one point reached roughly 25 percent.
Puell singled out SOPR as the metric that could change his mind — but with conditions attached. The profitability signal needs to persist for an extended period, with investors “realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low,” before he abandons his cautious long-term bias.
He also noted that bitcoin has yet to print a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on weekly timeframes, a structural pattern still absent from the charts. Without that confirmation, Puell argues, the market cannot yet rule out new macro lows for the cycle.
The setup into Q4
The disagreement matters for positioning into the fourth quarter. Bulls point to three weeks of profitable spending, a resilient price above key support, and cycle indicators echoing 2023. Skeptics counter that profit-taking pressure builds the longer SOPR stays elevated, and that macro catalysts — including the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision — could still break the range to the downside.
For now, the scoreboard reads: longest SOPR profit run of 2026, price holding its range near 78,300 USD, and a widening split between analysts who see recovery and those who see a trap.
There is also a mechanical reason the debate is not yet settled: SOPR describes average profitability across all spent coins, which means a handful of large, profitable wallet movements can flatter the reading even when the broader market remains fragile. That is why cohort-level breakdowns, such as the short-term holder version cited by Checkonchain, carry more analytical weight than the aggregate number alone. On that finer-grained view, the evidence currently leans constructive, with newer coins being spent into strength rather than panic-dumped at losses.
As Puell’s framework implies, the next few weeks of onchain data may settle the argument — if profitability holds without a new low, the bull case gets much harder to dismiss.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
bear market where every coin moving onchain moves at profit. puell gets paid to hedge, the metric does not
profit taking with zero capitulation for three weeks. if sellers were actually stressed this prints well below 1
Puell calling downside risk while SOPR holds above 1 for three straight weeks is a genuinely fun contrast. someone is wrong and the chart will tell us who
resolution comes when short term holder cost basis gets tagged. above it sopr holds, below it puell looks smart. the level is the trade
Puell calling downside risk while his own firm publishes the SOPR streak data is the most CryptoQuant thing ever. The metric guys and the analysts at the same shop disagreeing is actually healthy.
1.002 is barely above breakeven tbh. longest streak of the year sure, but the margin is paper thin. one red week and this whole narrative flips
thin margins held three weeks is the tell though. last cycle every relief rally printed below 1 within days. streak length matters more than the decimal
thin is still above 1. in an actual bear market this metric prints below breakeven the second relief hits. three weeks is three weeks
three weeks above 1 while everyone keeps calling the top. the metric is whispering and people want it to scream
barely above is the point tho. coins rotating at small profit for three weeks is rotation. the scary version prints 1.05 then dumps
1.05 then dump requires actual euphoria to print first. we havent even had a green week to be euphoric about
1.002 for three straight weeks. Nobody profits much per coin, but nobody is capitulating either. That stalemate reading usually resolves upward once spot resumes.
Every bear call this year has leaned on macro vibes while on-chain keeps printing quiet strength. Puell is sharp but I need actual price levels from him, not just downside risk as a vibe.
the full thread anchors to short term holder cost basis if i recall, article trimmed it. that single number would settle the whole divergence debate
fair ask. downside risk with no price level is just a mood. puell usually anchors to short term holder cost basis, would love that number here
He gave a framework, the article just trimmed the levels. Worth reading the full thread before judging the call. Still agreed the on-chain divergence is the bigger story.
puell hedging is free. if price dumps he called it, if it rips nobody remembers a three week old quote. the sopr streak at least has to answer to the chart
hedges are free until the tape calls them. three weeks of sopr above 1 while every headline screams bear is the divergence he has to answer for
1.002 for 21 days with zero capitulation. call it thin all you want, bears had a whole year to break this metric and couldnt