CryptoQuant: bitcoin needs to reclaim 81,700 USD to confirm a new bull market, with resistance stacked all the way to 88,700 USD
Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook remains constructive, but the largest cryptocurrency still has significant work to do overhead before a new bull market can be confirmed, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. In a note shared with The Block on Saturday, the firm said bitcoin must first clear resistance at 81,700 USD, and then push through a band of supply that stretches as high as 88,700 USD before the bull case can be considered validated.
The assessment lands at an awkward moment for momentum. Bitcoin traded near 77,300 USD at the time of writing, caught between a furious rebound off last week’s lows and a ceiling that has so far rejected every attempt to extend gains toward the 80,000 USD handle. The gap between the spot price and the first major CryptoQuant resistance level at 81,700 USD is roughly six percent, close enough to reach in a single strong session, but the stacked supply above it suggests the path higher will be contested rather than smooth.
Why 81,700 USD is the line in the sand
Resistance levels drawn from onchain cost-basis data carry a specific meaning: they mark price zones where large cohorts of holders acquired their coins and are more inclined to sell into strength to exit at breakeven. When those zones are dense, rallies stall; when they are cleared, the sellers who created them are replaced by buyers with unrealized gains, removing overhead supply and mechanically improving the structural picture.
That is the logic behind CryptoQuant’s framing. Clearing 81,700 USD would flip one of the densest cost-basis clusters in the current range from resistance to support, while the band stretching to 88,700 USD represents the remaining inventory of underwater positions accumulated at higher prices during earlier phases of the cycle. Only above that band does the supply overhang thin out enough, in the firm’s analysis, to declare a confirmed new bull market rather than another bear-market rally.
The framing echoes independent supply analysis published this week by Glassnode, which identified a wall of roughly 1.07 million BTC acquired in the 83,000 USD to 86,000 USD range, along with a widely tracked estimate that spot ETF buyers from earlier in the year sit near breakeven around 86,000 USD. Two separate analytics shops pointing at the same overhead zone strengthens the case that 83,000 USD to 88,700 USD is where the real battle will be fought.
The macro tug-of-war underneath
What happens at those levels will depend heavily on the macro backdrop, which has been anything but quiet. August’s CPI report printed at 3.4 percent year over year, in line with expectations, but the core reading came in hotter than forecast and long-dated Treasury yields pushed to fresh multi-decade highs, at one point touching their highest level since 2004 on the 30-year bond. Markets briefly priced close to an 86 percent probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting before the odds settled back toward a coin flip.
That volatility cuts both ways for bitcoin. On one hand, the dip below 77,000 USD immediately after the inflation print was bought aggressively, with price rebounding to trade back near 79,000 USD within hours before settling, a sign that demand remains firm on weakness. On the other, ETF investors have been less forgiving: US spot bitcoin ETFs bled roughly 462.7 million USD over last week’s sessions, with ARKB alone accounting for more than 234 million USD of outflows, even as ether funds took in nearly 197 million USD over the same stretch.
Sentiment, meanwhile, has stretched to levels that historically invite caution. CryptoQuant’s own fear and greed gauge for bitcoin topped 89 this week, extreme greed territory last seen in March 2024, even as price consolidates tens of thousands of dollars below this cycle’s earlier highs. The combination of extreme sentiment, heavy overhead supply, and a Federal Reserve decision looming on Wednesday frames the market’s predicament: the crowd is already positioned for the breakout that the supply data says has not yet been earned.
The bull and bear scripts from here
The bullish path is straightforward: a dovish surprise or a peaceful hold from the Fed, a resumption of ETF inflows, and a weekly close above 81,700 USD would put the 83,000 USD to 86,000 USD supply wall immediately in play, with a decisive break potentially triggering a cascade of short liquidations that carries price into the high 80,000s and confirms the new bull market CryptoQuant describes.
The bearish alternative is equally concrete. Rejection at the lower boundary of the resistance zone, continued ETF attrition, or a hawkish Fed surprise would leave price vulnerable to the demand shelf below, with 74,000 USD to 75,000 USD the most widely tracked support band and the July lows near 58,000 USD the deeper line that onchain analysts have flagged as the level that would invalidate the recovery thesis entirely.
Until one of those scripts plays out, the market is in a waiting pattern: spot near 77,300 USD, extreme greed sentiment, a six percent gap to the first confirmation level, and the most important central bank decision of the quarter days away. CryptoQuant’s message to traders is simple: the rebound is real, but the bull market is not confirmed until the 81,700 USD to 88,700 USD supply band is reclaimed. Everything below that is noise.
only six percent to 81,700 and it still feels miles away after every rejection at the 80k handle
six percent is like two hourly candles in this market lol, ppl acting like its a pilgrimage
six percent to 81,700 is one strong candle but that supply band stacked to 88,700 is gonna be a grind
Every rejection at 80k so far says the market agrees with CryptoQuant. Needs real volume, not hope.
exactly this. every bounce off the 80k handle died on fading volume. watch whether spot bids actually show up at 81.7k, that says more than any resistance chart
the volume point is underrated. breakouts that stick come on real participation, the failed retests all had thin books behind them. same tell applies at 81.7k
btc at 77.3k and the bull market is supposedly one breakout away. heard the same thing at 100k
difference is at 100k nobody could point to where the sellers sat. cryptoquant mapping the supply band to 88.7k at least tells you the exact wall price has to chew through
knowing where the wall sits doesnt make it shorter tho. plenty of ppl mapped the 69k supply in 2021 and bought the approach anyway
Clearing 81,700 is only the gate. The supply stacked up to 88,700 is where the breakeven sellers from the top live, and those are the holders with the least patience.
sitting at 77.3k reading about resistance all the way to 88.7k. love that for my portfolio
77.3k spot, an 81.7k gate, then supply stacked to 88.7k behind it. even the bullish path reads like a ladder of rejections
cost basis bands are nice until shorts get flushed at 80k and price pins straight through 81.7k in one funding squeeze. resistance is a mood, not a law