Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-09-13 16:02 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.29
2.29
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-72.2%
-72.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (59.8), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 47.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.35)
Bearish factors: far below high
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.78
Low: 0.86
Now: 2.29
Low: 0.86
Now: 2.29
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.8 | ADX (14) | 47.4 |
| 50d MA | 1.86 | 200d MA | 1.72 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.57 | Resistance | 2.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.23%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | +13.6% | +21.1% | +76.4% | +28.7% |
| BTC | -0.8% | +21.0% | -4.7% | -17.9% |
| ETH | +1.0% | +37.8% | +5.4% | -22.9% |
| SOL | +5.3% | +30.7% | +16.4% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,958
RETURN
-40.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -40.3% | -13.6% | -59.9% | 55 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +28.7% | 12,673 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +25.3% | 18,790 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +25.1% | 18,768 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +36.9% | 20,533 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.96 (-14.5%) |
| Target 1 | 3.00 (31.1%) |
| Target 2 | 3.00 (31.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 1.97 | |
| END | SELL | 2.29 | +16.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 16:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
vol ratio 1.35 with price above the 200d is the part that matters, last cycle there was zero accumulation. small size here, add on the retest
9 bull factors, 1 bear, and the bear is just far below high. near at 2.29 vs 8.24 top… seen this movie before
seen this movie before except last cycle there was zero accumulation on obv. vol ratio 1.35 is the part everyone skips
7.23% atr a day means support at 1.57 might as well be in another country lol. adx 47 is spicy tho
adx 47 is also how you get trend exhaustion in two weeks. still long from 1.9 tho lol
exactly, adx 47 on near usually means two more green weeks max then a 20 percent air pocket. trailing stop and enjoy the ride
air pocket truther here, got chopped out of the last near run at 3.40 waiting for exhaustion that showed up three weeks later
golden cross with price above the 200d while still 72% off the top is my favorite setup. rsi 59 leaves room to run too
the DCA table is the interesting part, 12 buys did +36.9% vs +28.7% lump sum. on something with 7% daily atr that tracks