Bitcoin short-term holders have now spent 30 consecutive days holding at least partial profit, the longest such stretch of 2026 and, according to CryptoQuant, a signal that has historically marked the end of bear markets.
The newest cohort of Bitcoin buyers is quietly doing something it has not managed to do all year: staying in profit. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s short-term holder base has been in at least partial profit since Aug. 16, a 30-day uninterrupted stretch that stands as the longest of 2026 and one the firm views as a prerequisite for a genuine bull-market reversal.
Short-term holders, or STHs, are wallets that have held their coins for less than six months. The cohort corresponds to newer buyers who react to price swings faster than seasoned holders, adding exposure on strength and capitulating on weakness. That sensitivity is exactly why their profitability matters: sustained STH profit has historically separated recoveries from dead-cat bounces.
The numbers behind the streak
As of Tuesday, STH coins held in profit total 168.2 billion USD in notional terms, while 102.6 billion USD worth of coins sit below their acquisition price. The split is not lopsided, but the ratio matters less to CryptoQuant than the duration.
“This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top,” the firm wrote in an accompanying blog post. “The last time was in January, but that episode didn’t last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH remained dominant.”
The pattern has a precedent. Comparable stretches of uninterrupted short-term holder profitability appeared at the end of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and lengthening profit runs have characterized recoveries across previous cycles. CryptoQuant’s read is that the bear-market trend “only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside.”
In other words, the firm is not calling a bottom on this data alone. It is arguing that this is a necessary condition for one, and that condition has now been met for a full month.
The wider investor base joined the party in August
The STH signal echoes a broader recovery in aggregate profitability. Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, which tracks net profit and loss across all investors, passed its breakeven level of 1 on Aug. 19 and has held above it since. Last week, onchain analytics suite Checkonchain argued that short-term holder profitability in particular was “starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”
The aggregate investor base has remained in net profit since Aug. 19, with the market retaining most of the roughly 25 percent upside it notched in August. Bitcoin traded near 76,900 USD on Tuesday afternoon, down about 1 percent over the last 24 hours, as traders positioned ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision and the Senate’s scheduled CLARITY Act cloture vote.
Where the new money sits
The composition of the profitable cohort is telling. CryptoQuant data shows STH profitability is currently being driven by entities holding between one and three months, a group with an aggregate cost basis, or realized price, at 63,372 USD. The more mature end of the short-term base, wallets holding between three and six months, sits at a realized price of 73,190 USD.
That structure means spot price has cleared the cost basis of the youngest, most reactive buyers while hovering only modestly above the basis of buyers who accumulated during the summer dip. A drop back toward the mid-73,000s would push the three-to-six-month cohort underwater and put the streak at risk, which makes that zone the key support band to watch in the near term.
Why this cycle feels different for the STH metric
Earlier in 2026, short-term holder pain was a defining feature of the drawdown. In May, losses held by the cohort dominated, and the January profit episode collapsed within days as price rolled over. The current stretch has survived a 30-day window that included an options expiry, a hot inflation print and a knee-jerk risk-off reaction to oil prices, without breaking.
CryptoQuant frames STH profitability as a hallmark of bullish reversals rather than a timing tool. Historically, once newer holders see sustained gains, their behavior shifts from selling any relief rally to holding through volatility, which reduces available supply and tightens the market’s structure. That behavioral shift, not the profitability number itself, is what has preceded durable uptrends in prior cycles.
What to watch next
Two catalysts this week could either extend the streak or end it. The Fed’s rate decision lands Wednesday, with futures markets pricing heavy odds of a hike, and the Senate is scheduled to move on the CLARITY Act cloture on Tuesday afternoon. Either event could produce the kind of volatility that tests the 73,000 to 75,500 USD support band in short order.
If price holds above the newer cohorts’ cost bases through the noise, the 30-day streak becomes a 40-day one, and with it the strongest cyclical evidence yet that the 2026 bear market is losing its grip. If it does not, January’s lesson stands: a profit episode without duration is just a bounce.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at roughly 76,916 USD, Ethereum at 2,476 USD and Solana at 100.80 USD.
the CryptoQuant bit about duration being the signal rather than the ratio is underrated. dead cat bounces flip STH green for days, 30 in a row is another animal
longest STH profit streak of 2026 and my timeline still acts like its february. 30 straight days in profit since aug 16 and somehow everyone is braced for a collapse lol
the detail people miss is CryptoQuant framing duration as the signal, not the ratio. 168 billion in profit vs 102 billion underwater sounds mixed, but the streak itself is the tell
30 straight days of STHs in profit and people are still calling for a retest of the lows. the aug 16 flip was the tell imo
^ the amount of cope in the replies to every bullish STH chart is wild. partial profit for new buyers is literally the opposite of capitulation
cool so 102 billion in coins still underwater but sure lets call it a bull market signal
the 102 billion underwater side is mostly older coins near the highs though, not this cohort. STH profit is about the newest buyers and those are green
read it again though, that 102b underwater number shrinks every day the streak holds. half the coins that were stuck from the july dump have probably already flipped to profit
every recovery starts with the underwater side shrinking, thats literally what a bottom forming looks like. you want the 168 billion number to keep growing while the 102 shrinks
CryptoQuant has flagged this same STH pattern before previous reversals. One month of data is encouraging, but I want to see it hold through a red week first.
Fair point on wanting a red week, but keep in mind the Aug 16 flip happened right after the July drawdown. If new buyers have held profit through that entry, the streak has already seen some stress.
longest streak of the year is a crazy stat when you remember how ugly july was
july pain is exactly why the streak matters. holding profit through a chop month is different from holding it in a straight pump
30 days sounds nice on a chart but the 168.2b in profit vs 102.6b underwater split is what does it for me. thats not a knife catch anymore, the base is actually building