Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-09-17 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (50.6)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 72.4), vol 6.81x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.05)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.6 | ADX (14) | 72.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 51.18%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | -29.2% | +15.0% | +1.0% | -55.1% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +19.7% | -5.3% | -15.6% |
| ETH | -2.9% | +30.8% | +4.7% | -21.0% |
| SOL | -8.5% | +32.8% | +7.3% | -26.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -39.4% | -100.0% | 51 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -55.1% | 3,323 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -16.4% | 10,036 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -25.1% | 8,989 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -21.7% | 9,402 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | -0.00 (-101.3%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.2% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.6% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | -7.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ATR of 51% a day and its still labeled stage 2 lol. one bad candle on JUP erases a month, waiting is the only sane read
vol 6.81x on a down day while ADX 72 says strong bear trend… the stage 2 label feels generous lol
^ and the drawdown column showing 99.9% off the 0.56 high is brutal. wait is the right call here
99.9% off the 0.56 high and people are still waiting for confirmation. this is the part of the movie where the dead cat gets aped
6.81x volume on a down day is the tell. stage 2 with that kind of sell pressure is a label, not a trend
Golden cross and price above the 200d, sure, but an OBV volume ratio of 0.05 means that rally had almost nobody behind it.
the OBV point is underrated. JUP did +15% over 3 months while SOL did +32%, the money clearly went elsewhere
both takes hold up imo, RSI 50.6 is fine on paper but not with distribution sitting underneath it
exactly. RSI 50.6 with ADX 72 is a strong trend with no clean entry, buying here is just praying the 50d catches up
HOLD on JUP while SOL did roughly double the upside over the same window. the 200d filter is saving this rating from itself