Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
2026-09-17 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2447.78
2447.78
52W HIGH
4953.73
4953.73
DRAWDOWN
-50.6%
-50.6%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 6 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (54.3), strong bull trend (ADX 46.5)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
ETH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 3083.05
Low: 1386.80
Now: 2447.78
Low: 1386.80
Now: 2447.78
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 54.3 | ADX (14) | 46.5 |
| 50d MA | 2228.14 | 200d MA | 2067.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1905.08 | Resistance | 2663.05 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.85%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | -2.5% | +31.4% | +5.2% | -20.6% |
| BTC | -5.0% | +19.5% | -5.5% | -15.8% |
| ETH | -2.5% | +31.4% | +5.2% | -20.6% |
| SOL | -8.1% | +33.4% | +7.8% | -26.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
20,250
RETURN
+35.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-22.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +35.0% | +35.5% | -22.6% | 69 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -20.6% | 7,999 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.6% | 14,911 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.6% | 13,853 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.1% | 14,984 |
ETH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2259.37 (-7.7%) |
| Target 1 | 2683.00 (9.6%) |
| Target 2 | 2825.00 (15.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 1881.37 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 1878.13 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 1883.99 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 1880.65 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | 1880.91 | |
| 2026-08-16 | SELL | 1873.94 | -0.4% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 1912.20 | |
| 2026-08-18 | SELL | 1916.46 | +0.2% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 2442.54 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 2457.69 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 2417.94 | |
| END | SELL | 2447.78 | +1.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
2447 against a 4953 high, half off, and Novak still calls it Stage 2 uptrend. ADX 46.5 is doing some heavy lifting here
golden cross plus price over the 50d at 2228 is all the system needs. clear 2663 first, then i’ll buy your skepticism
2663 is the trigger but the 50d at 2228 is the reload zone. system buys dips above it either way, this argument settles itself in a week
2228 reload only works if the system still has dry powder left after the 2447 entry. sizing nerds know the pain
ADX 46.5 with both MAs turned up is a textbook trend, not heavy lifting. The 2663 test settles it either way
ETH at 2447 after peaking near 4950. half off and the momentum crowd is already calling stage 2. same setup as early 2023, worked then, no promises now
the 2023 comparison only works if there is a catalyst pipeline. back then we had a clear narrative, now its just MAs pointing up
2023 had zero catalysts in january either, the narrative showed up after the move. buying 2447 with no story is the entire edge
catalyst argument cuts both way. by the time the obvious narrative shows up youre buying 3400, not 2447. ill take the entry with no story
there is a catalyst pipeline tho, the SEC tokenized stock relief landed this week. narratives exist, people just refuse to read them
SEC tokenized stock relief is one memo. the 2023 recovery was a full rate pivot. scale matters before calling it a catalyst pipeline
one SEC relief letter in a week where ETH still closed red is a pretty thin catalyst pipeline but ok, ill allow it
what was the january 2023 catalyst exactly. everyone forgets there wasnt one until the shanghai narrative got retconned in later
shanghai got retconned precisely because january 2023 had no catalyst. narratives follow price, they rarely lead it. buying 2447 storyless is the entire edge
from 3083 a year ago to 2447 now and somehow it’s the strong trend asset. long anyway, 1905 support feels miles away
1905 support feeling miles away is exactly how -22% drawdowns feel right before they print. thats literally the backtest talking
3083 to 2447 over a year and ADX still reads 46.5 because it measures the recent leg, not your annual candle. Arguing with the indicator using yearly candles is fighting the wrong timeframe.
trend systems are momentum buyers, not value buyers. the system doesnt care it was 3083 a year ago, it cares that the last leg turned up. annoying but thats the mechanic
backtest says +35% with a max drawdown of -22.6%. holding your nose through a 22% dip to basically match buy and hold is the whole trade here honestly
the whole point of the trailing exit is you dont eat the full -22.6. realized drawdown on this system is like half that, its in the trade log
the -22.6% assumes you sit through the whole drawdown. trailing exit means you dont, the realized DD on this system is way smaller
realized DD being smaller only works if the trailing exit actually fills. one 2447 to 1905 gap candle and your exit slips right past the stop
ADX 46.5, 50d and 200d both turned up, and people are still fighting the signal. 2663 is the tell. close above that and this thread ages badly
ADX at 46.5 after a year of chopping sideways is the detail everyone skips. Trend systems do not care that you remember 4950, they care about the last twenty bars.
+35% backtest against a -22.6% max DD means the whole trade is holding your nose while everyone calls the top in. 2663 or nothing