Bitcoin’s attempt to build on a post-Fed bounce ran into a wall of unexpectedly strong United States labor data on Thursday, as initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, reinforcing the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated after its first hike in nearly three years.
The cryptocurrency briefly gained 1.25 percent to trade near 76,800 USD shortly after the Department of Labor released its weekly claims report, but the advance evaporated within hours. BTC slipped back toward 76,051 USD, roughly 1 percent below its level an hour before the data drop, and hovered close to the 76,538 USD mark at the time of this report.
## Jobless claims came in far stronger than expected
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 in the week ending September 12, down from 206,000 in the prior week. Economists had forecast 207,000 claims, meaning the labor market came in meaningfully tighter than the market anticipated.
The four-week moving average, which smooths volatility in the weekly series, also declined, slipping to 203,250 from 206,000. Initial claims track new applications for unemployment benefits and offer one of the earliest available views of layoffs across the American economy. While the Labor Department cautions that weekly figures can be noisy, a decline of this size generally signals that employers are still holding on to workers.
For Federal Reserve officials, the reading adds to a growing pile of evidence that the labor market has remained firm despite an extended period of elevated borrowing costs. When job losses stay limited and inflation remains above the central bank’s 2 percent goal, policymakers face less pressure to ease policy — and in the current cycle, more reason to keep tightening.
## The backdrop: a rate hike nobody expected a month ago
The claims report landed one day after the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. All 12 voting members backed the decision, which delivered the first U.S. rate increase since 2023.
In its statement, the Fed said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending remained resilient, and capital investment stayed robust. Officials noted that job gains had kept pace with workforce growth and that the unemployment rate had changed little. Inflation, however, remained elevated, and the committee said the increase would support a timelier return to the 2 percent target.
The Fed’s updated projections placed the median federal funds rate at 4.1 percent by the end of 2026 — a signal that policymakers expect at least one more quarter-point increase before the year closes. Goldman Sachs has since revised its own forecast to include another 25-basis-point move this year, according to the original report, after Fed officials delivered mixed public messages about whether additional tightening is required.
Before the decision, market-implied odds of a September hike had climbed from roughly 69 percent to nearly 87 percent, a repricing linked in part to rising oil prices that stoked inflation concerns.
## Why higher rates keep pressure on Bitcoin
For crypto investors, the mechanics are straightforward. Higher policy rates lift the yield available on government debt, making interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to Bitcoin, which produces no income. Another increase would also raise the cost of leverage across crypto trading venues while keeping Treasury yields competitive with risk-sensitive holdings.
A firmer U.S. dollar, which often accompanies tighter monetary policy, adds another layer of pressure on dollar-priced assets. Bitcoin spent the past week whipsawed between these forces — briefly approaching 80,000 USD on September 11 before plunging below 75,000 USD on September 15, one of its sharpest reversals of the month.
Technical readings from earlier this week showed BTC trading below its 20-day simple moving average at 78,104, with the daily Chaikin Money Flow at minus 0.11 and the four-hour relative strength index under the neutral 50 level — a combination pointing to weak momentum and net capital outflows during the decline.
## The levels traders are watching
Analyst Michal van de Poppe identified 77,500 USD as the first meaningful resistance after Bitcoin bounced from approximately 75,584 USD. His chart work placed a heavier supply zone between 80,500 and 81,200 USD beyond that.
“Bitcoin facing resistance here. If you’d want to see some momentum, you’d need to break through this resistance and then we’re off towards the highs,” van de Poppe wrote on X.
Order-book data from earlier analysis sketched the battlefield in between: a downside liquidation cluster near 74,600 USD and an upside liquidity pocket around 77,700 USD. Thursday’s reaction to the jobless claims kept the price pinned between those two zones, leaving neither bulls nor bears with a confirmed break.
Clearing 77,500 USD would put Bitcoin within reach of its 20-day moving average at 78,104 before the asset could challenge the heavier supply above 80,500. Failure to recover the current range, on the other hand, keeps the 74,600 liquidation cluster in play.
## Politics remains a drag
U.S. political developments have added to the cautious mood. The Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act earlier this week after the motion drew 50 votes in favor and 49 against, short of the 60 needed. The bill would have settled how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide oversight of digital assets, and its stall leaves the industry without the regulatory clarity many firms say they need to expand.
With the Fed signaling at least one more hike, gold-strong labor data, and landmark crypto legislation stuck in the Senate, Bitcoin enters the final week of September with momentum firmly in question. For now, 77,500 is the line in the sand — until it breaks, the burden of proof sits with the bulls.
4 week average down to 203k while everyone stares at btc tick by tick. macro quietly says no cuts, range traders getting chopped both ways
203k four week average with payrolls next week. one hot wage print and the hike goes from priced in to certain
certain is a stretch, one hot AHE print gives them cover for hike talk but the fed has been allergic to surprising markets since 2019
196k claims and the hike narrative is back. btc giving back the whole 1.25% pop in two hours tells you who was leaning long into the print
this. the 76,800 rejection is the actual story, not the claims number itself
76,800 rejection on volume and straight back to 76,051. lose the 76k floor and the hike narrative goes from priced in to panic
76k has been tested 4 times this month and held. ill panic when it actually breaks, not when a claims print rhymes with a narrative
four tests holding is fair, but the 76,800 rejection was on real volume. one more print like this and support gets tested with leverage behind it
Leverage behind the fourth test changes the math though. Spot absorbed three of them, perps near highs in open interest absorb nothing.
four tests and held, sure, but every test eats the bids. the wall at 76k gets thinner each visit, check the depth chart before celebrating
depth chart point is fair but bids rebuild between tests too. the fourth hold on a strong claims print tells you more than the thickness of any wall
first hike since 2023 and everyone acts like its 2018 again. higher for longer means chop around 76k for weeks imo
196k claims vs 207k expected and btc barely moved off 76k. imagine if this print came in 2022, wed be down 5 percent already
2022 btc was levered to the gills. now the froth sits in memecoins, not btc perps. different animal entirely
exactly, feels like the 25bp hike was already priced in. market only cares about the next cpi print now
priced in until payrolls. one hot average hourly earnings number and 76k support becomes a rumor
because positioning is nothing like 2022. funding was deep positive then, now perps are flat and spot absorbs the prints
rates elevated through year end keeps the range trade alive imo. 76k support has held every test this month, watch that first before panicking about hikes
196k claims, ten grand below the 207k forecast, and the four week average down to 203,250. the labor market is not even pretending to cool
76,800 rejected twice now on real volume. as long as that lid holds the claims prints are just weather, the range is the climate
196k claims with the average at 203k and btc pinned under 77k is the market daring the fed to hike into a strong labor print. payrolls week gonna be loud
payrolls week loud is right. claims at 196k with the 4wk at 203k means the trend, not the print, is what forces their hand
Claims ten grand below forecast and BTC gave back the whole pop in two hours. That kind of strength into a hike cycle says the top of the range stays capped for now.
gave back the pop in two hours on thin volume though. id want to see the rejection hold through a full us session before calling the range capped