JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Outshine Gold Once ETF Hedging Pressure Finally Eases
Analysts at JPMorgan led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argue that Bitcoin is carrying a far heavier hedging burden than gold, and that this burden — not weak demand — has been the main thing holding the cryptocurrency back. If the hedging pressure unwinds, the bank says Bitcoin could receive more relative price support than the yellow metal.
The note, published this week, lands at an awkward moment for the crypto market. Bitcoin has clawed its way back toward the 81,000 USD level after a summer spent drifting between 57,000 USD and 80,000 USD, while gold trades near record territory around 4,600 USD an ounce. On the surface, both assets appear to be riding the same debasement trade. Under the surface, JPMorgan sees two very different positioning stories.
A Record Short Base in the Largest Bitcoin Fund
The centerpiece of the analysis is short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Figures reported by FINRA and compiled by MarketBeat put IBIT’s short base at 45.9 million shares as of the August 31 settlement date. That is the highest reading of the entire year and a jump of 23.8 percent from 37.1 million shares just two weeks earlier.
For context, the short base stood near 13 million shares at the end of March, the low point of 2026. In other words, bearish positioning against the flagship Bitcoin fund has more than tripled in roughly five months.
The scale is worth spelling out. The 45.9 million shorted shares represent 3.53 percent of IBIT’s float. Covering that position would take an estimated 0.6 days of the fund’s average trading volume of roughly 53 million shares — meaning a squeeze, if one develops, could unfold quickly.
Gold Tells the Opposite Story
The contrast with gold is stark. JPMorgan notes that short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) currently sits below its historical average, and that IBIT’s put-to-call open interest ratio runs above GLD’s. In plain terms: options traders are paying up for downside protection on Bitcoin at a rate they simply are not matching in the gold market.
That asymmetry is the crux of the bullish case. Much of the short interest in IBIT is not a directional bet that Bitcoin will collapse — it is hedging. Market makers, basis traders and institutions that are long Bitcoin exposure elsewhere use IBIT shorts and puts to neutralize risk. This hedging demand creates persistent selling pressure that gold does not have to absorb. If and when that hedging demand eases, the pressure releases.
Why the Bank Thinks the Trade Is Positioned to Flip
JPMorgan’s framing rests on the debasement trade that returned after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting. Both Bitcoin and gold funds drew inflows in the weeks that followed, as investors rotated into scarce assets on the back of US fiscal concerns. That rotation carried Bitcoin toward 80,000 USD and gold to nearly 4,600 USD an ounce.
But the recovery has been uneven. According to the note, gold ETFs have now recovered all of the outflows they suffered earlier in the year, while Bitcoin funds have recaptured only about half of theirs. Momentum in both markets faded over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose and the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote that fell short of the 60 votes needed.
The flows themselves have been violently two-sided. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted 236 million USD in outflows on September 1, only to absorb 731 million USD in inflows on September 3 — their strongest single day since January, with IBIT alone accounting for roughly 454 million USD. Net assets across the funds stood at 103.3 billion USD in early September, equivalent to about 6 percent of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, per SoSoValue data.
A Familiar Comparison, With a Familiar Moonshot Attached
This is not the first time Panigirtzoglou’s team has run the Bitcoin-versus-gold lens. In February, with crypto assets under pressure, the analysts calculated a volatility-adjusted comparison that valued Bitcoin’s equivalent worth at 266,000 USD per coin. They called it “an unrealistic target for this year” while insisting it “shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed.”
The takeaway for investors is less about a price target and more about positioning mechanics. Gold has already normalized. Bitcoin has not. A fund with a record short base, an elevated put skew and only half of its earlier outflows recovered is, in JPMorgan’s reading, a market still priced for disappointment — and one where the hedging froth, once cleared, could reveal genuine demand underneath.
At press time, Bitcoin traded near 81,100 USD, little changed over the past 24 hours, with Ethereum near 2,639 USD and Solana near 110.43 USD.
23.8 percent short jump in two weeks smells like a crowded hedge rather than conviction. crowded shorts unwind fast and messy, ask anyone short ibit in march
Agreed on the crowded hedge read, but March shorts got liquidated before the unwind ever helped anyone. If that put-to-call cools slowly instead of squeezing, this note ages into nothing much.
45.9 million shares short in IBIT is a record base in the biggest btc fund and somehow the takeaway is supposed to be bearish lol
short base tripled from 13 million shares since march and price still ground its way to 81k. thats the part the bear crowd keeps skipping
45.9 million shares short against a fund that keeps absorbing them anyway. whoever sits on the other side of that hedge is not exactly paper handed
that’s the squeeze fuel people keep missing. all that hedging pressure unwinding is basically the whole bull case JPM is pointing at
record short base and the price still ground its way to 81k anyway. whoever kept selling those hedges basically funded the climb lol
put-to-call ratio on IBIT running hotter than GLD while gold shorts sit below their average. options market is telling you exactly where the fear actually lives
JPM had Bitcoin rangebound between 57k and 80k all summer on hedging pressure, then one week at 81k and suddenly the whole note is scripture. The squeeze thesis is fine, the certainty people project onto it is the borrowed part.
jpm saying hedging pressure not demand kept btc rangebound between 57k and 80k all summer. if the ibit short base unwinds this gets interesting fast
Panigirtzoglou has been on the debasement trade thesis for years, at least this time the numbers actually back him up. gold at 4,600 and btc still catching up
genuine question, if the hedge unwind plays out does jpm see btc outperforming gold in absolute terms or just relative? chart at 81k vs gold at records feels like a big gap to close
its relative, the note literally says price support versus gold once hedging clears. anyone reading absolute outperformance into this is doing wishful math
read the note, its relative outperformance they are calling, not btc magically at gold levels. same debasement basket, btc just has the ibit short overhang to shed. if that put-to-call cools while gold shorts stay under their average the gap at 81k vs 4,600 closes on its own
pretty sure jpm means relative outperformance here. btc closing the whole gap to gold at 4,600 would be a much bigger call than the note actually makes