Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-28 15:00 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-81.7%
-81.7%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 7 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (55.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 43.5), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.24)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high, vol 1.56x on down day
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.9 | ADX (14) | 43.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.25%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | +7.1% | +12.2% | -16.4% | -29.5% |
| BTC | +4.9% | +30.3% | +7.2% | -6.0% |
| ETH | +7.1% | +41.1% | +25.4% | -9.2% |
| SOL | +13.7% | +59.3% | +37.3% | -6.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,238
RETURN
-29.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -29.2% | -51.7% | -35.9% | 53 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -29.5% | 7,981 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -28.4% | 21,494 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -28.7% | 21,376 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -24.5% | 22,659 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-8.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.2% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-22 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.5% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-28 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Eighty-one percent drawdown from the high and the model still says WAIT instead of AVOID. The bounce attempts are real, but I would need price over that 200d before touching it.
^ this, ADX 43.5 means the trend is strong but price under the 200d is the dealbreaker for me too
200d discourse on a coin trading at one cent, we are all institutional now lmao. but yeah same line in the sand for me
the entry filter saves it tbh. a model that only buys over the 200d at least keeps you out of the -29.5 ytd part
the entry filter over the 200d is the one defensible thing on this card. everything above it is hope with a HOLD sticker
200d is miles away at one cent tho. first lower high above the 50d is where id even start looking, and even then lol
FLR down 29.5% on the year while BTC is only -6%. even the backtest lost money lol. hard pass
The YTD number is the brutal part. Sitting through -29.5% while BTC chops sideways is a decision made on hope, not on the backtest that lost money.
backtest loses money and the model still tags HOLD. more conviction against itself than the bulls have lol
a model that backtests negative and still prints HOLD is basically telling you dont bother, without saying it
Same reaction here. A model that tags HOLD on a coin its own backtest lost money on needs a third output. This is literally what AVOID was invented for.
an AVOID tag would torch the model win rate stats, so we get WAIT forever. same energy as fund managers who never sell anything
the -29.5 vs -6 btc comparison is the whole flare thesis in one line. even the bounce trades at one cent feel like chores
the -29.5 vs -6 btc line is why i stopped averaging down here. every flare bounce since 2021 has been a lower high, HOLD just means hold the L
price at 0.01 while the card still bothers printing a HOLD is almost admirable. three years of patience bought one more quarter of waiting
the trade finance narrative has been two quarters away for three years now. one cent is cheap for a reason
three years lol, i first heard the flare FAssets pitch in 2022. at some point the wait itself is the thesis
flare holders have heard trade finance is two quarters away since 2022. at some point the one cent price IS the information
an AVOID tag would require someone at the model shop to admit HOLD was wrong for three quarters. the incentive structure says it never prints lol
since 2022 is generous, i bought the flare trade finance pitch back in 2021. minus 29.5 percent ytd later im mostly reading these HOLD labels for the comedy
the FAssets line about 2022 is generous, first time i heard that pitch was late 2021 at a conference. three cycles of two quarters away
two quarters away since 2021 is right. i stopped marking FAssets as a thesis and started marking it as a coupon
still holding the FLR i got from the xrp snapshot, at this point the bag is a family heirloom. HOLD tag changes nothing lol
The ADX 43.5 reading on a coin 81 percent off its high is the funniest part of this whole card. Strong trend, wrong direction.
ADX 43.5 on an 81 percent drawdown is my favorite stat of the week. strong trend, wrong direction, HOLD tag