Bitcoin treasury companies built primarily around buying the cryptocurrency may struggle to compete with Michael Saylor’s Strategy — and investors should think twice before betting the house on the imitators, according to economist Saifedean Ammous, author of “The Bitcoin Standard.”
By Sarah Park | October 3, 2026
The Hook: The Copycats Face a Math Problem
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis program, Ammous delivered a blunt verdict on the wave of companies that have copied Strategy’s playbook of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin. “I don’t see a compelling case for going to another Bitcoin treasury company other than Michael Saylor’s Strategy,” he said.
His reasoning comes down to size and borrowing power. Strategy’s larger Bitcoin holdings allow it to borrow at lower rates, giving it a structural advantage over smaller treasury companies — the same way a giant retailer gets better prices from suppliers than a corner shop. Smaller firms chasing the same strategy pay more for capital while holding less of the asset, a combination that gets worse, not better, as the sector grows.
The Numbers: What Strategy Actually Holds
The scale gap is enormous. According to a Monday 8-K filing, Strategy holds the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury: 847,666 BTC acquired for 63.95 billion USD. The company also reported a 5.02 billion USD cash reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest — a cushion Ammous says makes the company resilient even in a deep downturn.
- 847,666 BTC — Strategy’s total holdings per its Monday 8-K filing, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world.
- 63.95 billion USD — the reported total cost of acquiring that Bitcoin.
- 5.02 billion USD — cash reserve earmarked for preferred dividends and debt interest.
The Core Conflict: Surviving the Summer Stress Test
Strategy’s financing model came under real pressure over the summer. As Bitcoin fell below 60,000 USD, the company’s STRC preferred stock traded far below its 100 USD target price. Management responded by raising STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12 percent, repurchasing shares, and building up the cash reserve. The company also sold some Bitcoin to help fund dividends and STRC buybacks before resuming accumulation.
Ammous argued that even that stressful episode never brought the company close to liquidation, and that previous drawdowns proved the same. “Even a much bigger Bitcoin drawdown is going to leave them in a decent situation because they have enough cash on hand to make their payments,” he said. For smaller treasury companies without that cash cushion, a similar drawdown could play out very differently — which is exactly his point.
It is worth noting what Ammous is not saying. He is not telling people to buy Strategy stock. In fact, he cautioned that investing in the company carries risks and said he personally favors holding Bitcoin directly — a notable stance from an economist famous for arguing Bitcoin should be treated as sound money rather than a leveraged trading vehicle.
The Broader Model: Every Business Should Hold Some Bitcoin
While skeptical of the copycat treasury companies, Ammous is bullish on a simpler version of corporate Bitcoin adoption. Businesses with positive cash flow can put surplus cash into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, he said, adding that he expects more companies to adopt this model. “I think pretty much every business should be doing this,” he told the program.
He was careful to distinguish reserve money from working capital — the cash a business needs for daily, weekly and monthly operations should stay liquid, while true surplus can sit in a harder asset. That distinction is the difference between prudence and recklessness for any company considering a treasury allocation, and it echoes the classic corporate finance principle of matching your assets to your obligations.
His Price Outlook: A 2029 Peak and a 2030 Guess
Ammous also offered a market view. He said Bitcoin has probably already bottomed, although another crash could still take prices lower. He expects the current cycle to peak in 2029, with prices predominantly rising until then. “We may bottom again, we may witness another crash that takes us down,” he cautioned.
Asked for a 2030 price estimate, Ammous put his best guess at roughly 200,000 USD, based on the Bitcoin power-law model — a framework that describes Bitcoin’s long-run price trend — and he chose a figure near the lower end of the range it produces. His own caveat was characteristically dry: “I wouldn’t bet on it.”
The Verdict: Own Bitcoin, Question the Leveraged Middlemen
For regular investors, Ammous’s message distills into practical advice. If you want Bitcoin exposure, holding Bitcoin directly keeps things simple and avoids the added risks of someone else’s leverage. If you prefer the treasury-company route, understand that these firms are not interchangeable: Strategy’s scale, cash reserves and borrowing costs give it advantages that smaller imitators may never replicate — and smaller drawdowns, he noted, could actually make Bitcoin more attractive to large asset managers as memories of past bear markets fade. The category is here to stay. The pecking order, he suggests, already is too.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
847,666 btc acquired for 63.95 billion. any copycat trying to out-strategy that flywheel is playing checkers against the guy who invented the board
ammous trashing every imitator while defending the biggest mNAV premium on the market is a funny bit of brand loyalty honestly
Fair point, but STRC needing a 12 percent dividend after trading under the 100 target shows the financing gets stressed fast when btc dips below 60k
brand loyalty or just math loyalty lol. he backs strategy because the premium exists, the premium exists because the borrowing is cheaper. its circular until it isnt
ammous is right on the math. strategy borrows cheaper than every copycat so the smaller treasury firms are just leveraged beta with worse terms
worse terms AND a smaller stack. the premium on some of these imitators is pure copium
the giant retailer getting better supplier prices comparison is exactly it. scale IS the moat here
until the borrowing cycle turns and the biggest borrower becomes the biggest bag holder. works both ways
the biggest borrower only becomes the biggest bag holder if btc goes down forever. cost basis works out to about 75k on those numbers, a 60k btc is uncomfortable, not fatal
the copycat treasuries always felt like 2021 spacs all over again. ammous just said it with better credentials
847,666 BTC is roughly four percent of all the bitcoin that will ever exist, in one corporate treasury. The copycats are fighting over scraps of the scraps.