Deep Dive Analysis
Pi Network (PI)
2026-10-04 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
0.27
0.27
DRAWDOWN
-67.8%
-67.8%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD bear cross, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.73)
PI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.20
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.5 | ADX (14) | 9.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.13 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.08 | Resistance | 0.10 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.19%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PI | -9.3% | +2.2% | -38.8% | -56.9% |
| BTC | +10.8% | +34.1% | +12.3% | -3.5% |
| ETH | +9.1% | +43.5% | +30.4% | -7.7% |
| SOL | +22.0% | +64.8% | +44.8% | -2.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
13,911
RETURN
-7.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-11.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PI | -7.3% | -47.9% | -11.4% | 9 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.9% | 7,818 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -18.7% | 12,201 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -23.2% | 11,515 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -22.7% | 11,593 |
PI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-4.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.10 | -2.9% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.09 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.7% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | 0.09 | -7.3% |
| 2026-09-26 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-27 | SELL | 0.09 | +0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-04 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
down 67% from the high and people still think the next announcement changes anything. the chart has been telling you for a year
Been hearing just wait for the big exchange listings since 2021. At some point that is on you, not on the project.
since 2021 is right. my cousin still taps the lightning button daily, at this point its a lifestyle choice more than an investment
0.09 against a 0.27 high is the whole thesis. Every rally since spring has been a lower high, listings talk does nothing about that structure.
lower highs since spring and people still ask why the conviction is only medium. the structure does the arguing for you
same. bought near 0.27, watched every lower high since spring. the big listings carrot never ages apparently
fellow 0.27 bagholder, welcome to the club nobody wanted. nine cents later and the listings carrot is still all theyve got
phone mined coins for years, watched the 0.27 high turn into a nine cent chart. even the medium conviction hedging feels generous here
OBV distribution, death cross, price under both MAs and the verdict is only MEDIUM conviction? bold scoring system
right? what more does an asset need to do to earn a full send avoid lol
Clara Nunes with the only sane take in this thread lol. Sometimes the answer is just: do not buy the -67% coin.
the -67% does most of the work, the other 33% is copium about upcoming listings
Because the scoring weights fundamentals with no revenue and a mainnet most people unlocked and dumped years ago. Chart says MEDIUM at best.
exactly, the chart has said max since spring. every bounce capped under the last one, medium conviction is doing a lot of diplomatic work there
unlocked and dumped years ago is the part everyone skips. whatever float is left still bleeds out, medium conviction on a nine cent chart is generous
a scoring model that weighs fundamentals for a chain with no revenue is a random number generator in a spreadsheet
scared of strong hands more like. medium conviction with support at 0.08 and every bounce capped under the last is generous scoring
right? OBV bleeding for a year plus a death cross and the model still hedges. some of these templates seem scared of strong words
0.09 against a 0.27 high and the sell case still needed a whole 15k deployment plan. one line would have done it
lmao accurate. price 0.09 against a 0.27 high, lower highs since spring, done. nobody needed a 15k deployment plan to not buy this
the one line version: nine cents, lower highs all year, zero revenue. file it under things the chart solved before the model did
fr. one line: down 67%, death cross, lower highs. did not need a 15k deployment plan to arrive at do not buy
my dad still mines this on his phone and tells me im the one missing out. nine cents, uncle. nine cents
print the -67.8% drawdown box and tape it to his phone case lol
resistance 0.10 versus support 0.08, the entire trade is a 2 cent range with 6 bear factors. ATR 2.19% a day on that structure is just bleed