Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-10-06 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.35
0.35
52W HIGH
0.47
0.47
DRAWDOWN
-25.7%
-25.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (65.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 25.7), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.77)
Bearish factors: MACD-
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.22
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.35
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.35
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 65.1 | ADX (14) | 25.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.26 | 200d MA | 0.21 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.22 | Resistance | 0.37 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.51%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | +62.1% | +85.7% | +99.3% | +58.4% |
| BTC | +13.5% | +34.0% | +16.7% | -3.8% |
| ETH | +13.1% | +45.3% | +35.2% | -9.7% |
| SOL | +24.4% | +63.4% | +47.0% | -3.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
40,208
RETURN
+14.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-43.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | +14.9% | +101.7% | -43.5% | 15 | 27% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +58.4% | 70,599 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +82.4% | 63,824 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +72.8% | 60,480 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +77.1% | 61,975 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.31 (-11.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.92) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.20 | -2.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.19 | -4.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-05 | SELL | 0.18 | -9.1% |
| 2026-06-19 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-06-20 | SELL | 0.19 | -2.2% |
| 2026-06-21 | BUY | 0.21 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.20 | -6.5% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.22 | |
| END | SELL | 0.35 | +58.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-06 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
27% win rate across 15 trades and this gets labeled a system. that is fewer trades than I take in a bad week and it lost money on most of them
trend following is cut losers fast and let winners run, 27% win rate with a positive total return is literally how it works. win rate is the wrong scoreboard here
expectancy is the scoreboard, werdz_42 is right about that. 15 trades is still a coin flip sample though, i would want 50 before deploying 35k on JUP at 0.35
50 trades is two more years of jup chop though. the 0.14 to 0.35 arc carried the whole book, one more leg and the sample size stops mattering
or the trend shows up next month and the sample stops mattering either way. thats the trend following deal, you pay for the wait
two more years of chop for a real sample, and the article says deploy 35k today. the sample size argument cuts against the very plan it is selling
exactly, expectancy per trade is the real scoreboard. the 0.14 to 0.35 arc already paid for every failed entry along the way
vol ratio 1.77 is the standout number here. someone is buying this dip with actual size, not just retail chop
agreed, though 0.37 resistance is where it gets interesting. JUP failed there twice earlier this year
vol ratio 1.77 with a 27 percent win rate, the buyers with size are clearly not trading the same system as the writeup. they are positioning, not following signals
1.77 vol ratio with rsi 65 means someone is absorbing the range sells. whether they know about the 27 percent win rate is a different question entirely
35k into a coin with MACD- and RSI 65? feels like the system is buying strength and hoping the crossover catches up
that’s literally what trend following is. you buy strength late and exit weaker later. ugly, but 0.14 to 0.35 in a year says it works
the problem is trend following needs a trend to survive. JUP has chopped sideways since may, and late entries on a 27% win rate is just donating fees while you wait for the next 0.14 to 0.35 leg
chop since may is the real counterargument. a 27% win rate into a range is fee burn, the 0.14 to 0.35 arc needs the trend first.
a 27 percent win rate only works if winners run. the 0.14 to 0.35 leg paid for everything once, it needs another one first
the 0.35 entry is what kills it for me. buying that deep into a range on a 27 percent hit rate, the runner has to be enormous
0.35 with the runner doing all the work is the trend following tax. you pay ugly entries for the one leg that matters
the runner carrying the whole plan is just hopium with extra steps. either the stop trails up with structure or you roundtrip the entire trade
Target 1 and Target 2 both show 0.00, that is a -100% target. someone published this with broken take profit fields and nobody caught it
spotted the 0.00 targets too lol. at least the stop at 0.31 got filled in, so the risk side exists even if the reward side is blank
someone at editorial hit publish before lunch clearly. the 0.31 stop doing all the work on its own
lmao -100% targets. editorial is asleep at the wheel, though the 0.31 stop being filled in suggests it got half fixed and shipped anyway
someone should tell editorial the take profit fields are still blank. been up for hours lol
still blank 12 hours later lol. at least the 0.31 stop exists, the risk side of the plan is half alive
blank take profits 16 hours in is still wild to me. the 0.31 stop cant carry the whole risk model alone
0.37 rejected twice this year and the entry sits at 0.35. the plan buys the rejection zone and calls it strength, at least the 0.31 stop is honest