Deep Dive Analysis
XRP (XRP)
2026-10-07 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.47
1.47
52W HIGH
3.65
3.65
DRAWDOWN
-59.8%
-59.8%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (50.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 43.6)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
XRP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.81
Low: 0.49
Now: 1.47
Low: 0.49
Now: 1.47
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.9 | ADX (14) | 43.6 |
| 50d MA | 1.43 | 200d MA | 1.28 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.25 | Resistance | 1.65 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.39%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XRP | +12.8% | +38.1% | +10.3% | -18.8% |
| BTC | +10.3% | +30.0% | +14.5% | -0.7% |
| ETH | +8.2% | +37.1% | +29.9% | -7.2% |
| SOL | +20.1% | +60.1% | +44.6% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,351
RETURN
-13.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-18.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XRP | -13.3% | -32.9% | -18.8% | 42 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XRP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -18.8% | 17,807 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.5% | 31,690 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +4.1% | 36,433 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.8% | 34,713 |
XRP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.34 (-8.8%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (36.5%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (36.5%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 1.37 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 1.34 | -1.9% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 1.42 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.28 | -9.6% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 1.30 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 1.30 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 1.40 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 1.41 | +1.0% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 1.41 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 1.53 | +8.7% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| END | SELL | 1.47 | -6.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-07 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
35k deployment call with ADX at 43.6 i can live with, but the MACD cross is the one confirmation that has saved me from fakeouts on XRP before. RSI 50 with room to run is the better tell here imo
the 2024 reset burned most of those bags well above 2. the wall left is people who bought the recent bounce, way thinner than everyone assumes
thin overhead wall plus still 60 percent off the high is the weird combo here. nothing left to sell into and nobody believes it yet
thin overhead plus disbelief is the fuel mix. nobody believes a 60 percent drawdown asset at 1.47, thats usually when it moves
Stage 2 with ADX at 43.6 and people are still calling the top. Price over the 50 and the 200, golden cross confirmed, rising 1m and 3m. This is textbook. Slow grind up is exactly what you want to see, not some vertical candle.
@torbjorn_hld textbook until the bagholders from 3.65 finally crawl back to break even and dump on the whole move. stage 2 or not, been front run by that crowd before lol
the 3.65 crowd has been underwater for years on some entries. most of those bags got reset during the 2024 run way above here, the breakeven dump wall is thinner than you think
the reset thesis mostly checks out, breakeven clusters from the 2024 run sit way above 2. thinner wall, but 1.47 is still close enough to local chop that entries still matter
the dump wall thesis keeps skipping that most 3.65 supply reset during the 2024 run well above 2. wall gets thinner every month the 1.47 grind holds
@torbjorn sure, but MACD is negative and we are still almost 60% off the high. Trend following says buy, fine, but I want to see a MACD cross before I trust the continuation.
macd went negative four sessions ago and price is flat, that divergence usually resolves up in a stage 2 trend. but sure, wait for the cross and pay 1.55 for it
‘@Jonas Wer paid 1.52 waiting for that exact cross in august, no regrets tbh. the adx 43 crowd got a better entry and the same trend
this is the eternal stage 2 dilemma. confirmation buyers basically fund the early entries’ exit. splitting the 35k across tranches is the compromise nobody wants but everyone should probably take
paid 1.53 waiting on the cross in september and the entry was fine tbh. both camps end up in the same trade by 1.55 anyway
@Anders Vik the MACD bear flag on these signal posts has been wrong like 4 runs in a row for XRP honestly. momentum lags price, adx 43 says the trend is real
ADX 43 with negative MACD just means the trend is mature, not fake. You basically said it yourself, momentum lags. Waiting for the cross means paying up for the confirmation.
the macd cross crowd keeps waiting for permission while adx 43 says the trend already left. by the time it crosses this is 1.70
permission crowd pays 1.55 for comfort, adx crowd pays 1.47 for the wait. same trade either way by february
the august setup played out exactly like that though, the cross never came and price left without it. with ADX pinned above 40 the MACD is a lagging passenger, not a gate
the cross finally printed in september and price is still under 1.55. waiting for confirmation twice is just paying rent on indecision
Agreed on the stage 2 read. ADX at 43.6 while price sits under 1.50 is my favorite version of this setup, the quiet grind is what fuels the vertical part later
1.47 with a 3.65 high feels like a gift until you remember how long the bagholders from up top have waited. Still, RSI 50 and rising is one of the few setups that has actually worked for me this year.
The 50d rising while price holds above the 200d is the part that matters most here. Deep dives always list eight bullish factors but the structural ones are the only ones I weight anymore. Deploying into a strong trend beats catching knives.
1.47 with rsi at 50 and the 50d holding over the 200d is the least exciting and most reliable line in this whole writeup
1.47 under 1.50 with adx 43 is the quiet before the loud part. every stage 2 grind looks boring right up until it doesnt