Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-10-09 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.64)
Bearish factors: RSI weak (44.8), far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 77.5)
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.8 | ADX (14) | 77.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.89%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +7.4% | +7.4% | -10.5% | -23.3% |
| BTC | +2.0% | +27.1% | +12.1% | +4.9% |
| ETH | -4.4% | +30.5% | +24.6% | +2.1% |
| SOL | -2.3% | +49.4% | +33.7% | +4.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
3,271
RETURN
-72.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-76.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -72.7% | -58.7% | -76.3% | 50 | 6% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -23.3% | 6,444 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -15.7% | 10,114 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -15.5% | 10,143 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -11.7% | 10,591 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-07 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-09 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Deploying 12k into a HOLD rating feels generous. Elena’s own table shows -23% on the year with the 52w high long gone, i’d want a proper capitulation candle first.
12k into a hold is a lot but vol ratio 1.64 with rsi 44.8 is the closest thing to a base this chart has shown since the 52w high. half size or nothing
half size on a HOLD is still generous imo, one obv bump is a whale not a base. rsi 44.8 is at least neutral finally tho
half size or nothing is the right framing. one strong ratio day after months of bleed is a hope, not a base. letting it prove 0.0000145 holds first
ADX 77.5 and they still call it HOLD lol. that trend line is a cliff, no way im deploying 12k into that
ADX 77.5 usually means the trend is exhausted, not fresh. thats honestly the one bullish read in the whole setup imo
adx 77.5 as exhaustion being the bull case on a hold rating is a fun bit of irony, respect for spotting it
that oct 7 sell at -16.7% into a HOLD rating is contradictory no? either the system believes the bottoming thesis or it doesnt
same, the oct 7 exit at -16.7% and then HOLD two days later is whiplash. guessing the system recalibrated on that OBV bump
contradictory until you remember it recalcs daily. oct 7 it saw -16.7 and panicked exactly like a human would
oct 7 exit at -16.7 then HOLD two days later only reads contradictory until you remember it recalcs daily. the system panicked like a human then re-rated on the obv bump, almost comforting
it recalcs daily, the oct 7 exit and todays HOLD is the system being honest about changing inputs, not a contradiction
recalcs daily and still says half size, thats the system knowing dog coin rallies evaporate by lunch. respect
the doom read is lazy. ADX 77.5 after a rolloff is textbook exhaustion and exhaustion is where bottoms form
exhaustion is where bottoms form until it isnt. that 0.0000139 low printed on thin volume so id want a retest with actual bids under it first
retest crew. a 1.64 volume ratio on one green day after months of bleed is noise until 0.0000145 holds on a daily close
the 0.0000139 low printing on thin volume is the detail nobody is quoting. every shib bounce since spring died before reclaiming even half the bleed, half size at 0.0000125 is honestly generous
RSI at 44.8 with OBV climbing is not the worst setup tbh, but -23% on the year while SOL does +49 is tough to defend
^ this. every dog coin holder knows the pain of watching btc print +27 while shib bleeds. vol ratio 1.64 is the only hopeful number in there
12k into a HOLD is paying rent on indecision. at least the -23% ytd column keeps it honest
SHIB at -23% ytd while the system still finds a 1.64 volume ratio on up days. dog coins keep producing content even in their sleep
12k on a HOLD is really half now and half near 0.0000125. the minus 23 percent ytd column is doing the risk math for you
half near 0.0000125 is the only leg of this worth anything. rsi 44.8 after months of bleed is neutral at best, not a base
minus 23 on the year while sol prints plus 49, and the rating is HOLD not AVOID. dog coin loyalty is a mental health condition at this point
hold on -23 ytd is loyalty, cant argue. at least the half entry at 0.0000125 is a real level instead of vibes
loyalty as a mental health condition lol. the half entry at 0.0000125 is the only disciplined part of the whole table, ill give it that