Deep Dive Analysis
Cardano (ADA)
2026-08-13 16:05 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.18
0.18
52W HIGH
1.32
1.32
DRAWDOWN
-86.2%
-86.2%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 5 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (50.9), rising 1m & 3m, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.47)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
ADA Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.42
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.18
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.18
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 50.9 | ADX (14) | 21.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.17 | 200d MA | 0.23 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.15 | Resistance | 0.21 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.68%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ADA | +8.3% | +7.0% | -26.5% | -56.2% |
| BTC | -1.9% | +0.4% | -5.1% | -28.6% |
| ETH | +0.8% | +13.2% | -8.4% | -37.4% |
| SOL | +0.7% | +14.3% | -5.4% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,089
RETURN
-19.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-25.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ADA | -19.4% | -72.4% | -25.2% | 36 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ADA)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.2% | 2,954 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -52.4% | 7,141 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -42.5% | 8,631 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -42.6% | 8,607 |
ADA Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.17 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-03 | BUY | 0.19 | |
| 2026-08-04 | SELL | 0.19 | -0.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | BUY | 0.19 | |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | 0.20 | +5.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 0.20 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 0.20 | -0.9% |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 0.19 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 0.19 | -1.8% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 0.19 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 0.18 | -2.4% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 0.18 | |
| END | SELL | 0.18 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-13 16:05 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
33% win rate over 2 years and this is a HOLD? bro the strategy literally lost money every single year lol
the DCA vs lump sum table is brutal. lump sum a year ago and you are down 56%. even 12-buy DCA only gets you to -42%. nobody wins holding this
the wildest row of that table is -42 percent counting as the good outcome. 12 perfectly timed buys across a year and your prize is losing slightly less
perfectly timed buys for a full year and the reward is losing slightly less. that table should hang in a gallery as a warning
losing slightly less as the trophy for perfect timing. that whole table is an argument for index funds lmao
Ines Paiva donating to market makers is exactly it. RSI dead center at 50 means every breakout attempt is bait until 0.24 actually flips
every breakout attempt is bait until 0.24 flips is the whole chart in one sentence. the model didn’t even bother with targets, it just priced the fakeout
wallfeed_ exactly, and until 0.24 flips even the perfectly timed table just loses slower. hold is the only non-trade left on this chart
targets literally set to 0.00 on both sides. even the analysis engine gave up trying to find a reason to be bullish on ADA lol
nunya_bidness_ 33pct win rate and HOLD is generous. even the analysis engine couldnt find a reason to be bullish so it just gave up
down 86% from the highs and still no targets above 0 on the deployment plan. somehow this is more depressing than my actual ADA bags
Klaas V. down 86pct from highs and still zero targets above 0. at this point the analysis is just documenting the bleed
ada_dca_kek 86 percent down from 1.32 and the model still cannot print a single target above 0.18. At least the honest ones say hold and stop pretending there is an edge
RSI at 50.9 and ADX at 21.7 means theres no trend at all. its just chop. calling it HOLD is generous, this is a do nothing zone
targets set to 0.00 on both sides basically says everything. no direction no conviction no reason to deploy capital
adx 21 and rsi 50 is textbook no trend. the 15k portfolio doing what everyone should, nothing. ada either reclaims 0.24 or this is just a slow bleed with extra steps
0.24 has been the line since spring. every bounce dies right under it, the market already told us where this goes
0.24 rejection count is getting silly. every bounce walks up to the line, taps it, falls over. respect the level or lose money
RSI 50.9, ADX 21.7, and the honest output is do nothing. Deploying 15K into chop is paying fees to gamble on a coin flip.
Ingrid L. paying fees to gamble on a coin flip is the most honest description of deploying into ADX 21 chop ive ever read. the 15k should just sit in t-bills
do nothing is the correct call and somehow the hardest trade. deploying into adx 21 chop is donating to market makers
Tomas put a full 15,000 portfolio breakdown on a coin with zero directional targets and it’s still the most honest ADA content this month. at least it admits there’s no trade instead of inventing one
down 86 percent and the best possible outcome in the entire table was losing slightly less. genuinely what is the bull case for ADA anymore, its been three years of 0.24 rejections
honestly the remaining bull case is that selling here just locks the -86 percent. hold is the model admitting it has no better idea, which is fair
the bull case is inertia and nothing else. three years of 0.24 rejections and the best row in the whole table is still losing slightly less