Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
2026-10-11 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
8.36
8.36
52W HIGH
39.92
39.92
DRAWDOWN
-79.0%
-79.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 31.0), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.81)
ETC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 9.82
Low: 6.02
Now: 8.36
Low: 6.02
Now: 8.36
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.7 | ADX (14) | 31.0 |
| 50d MA | 8.21 | 200d MA | 7.83 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 7.09 | Resistance | 10.38 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.16%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETC | -1.9% | +30.3% | +10.0% | -14.8% |
| BTC | +2.3% | +28.1% | +24.5% | +5.5% |
| ETH | -5.2% | +31.3% | +34.9% | +6.9% |
| SOL | -1.3% | +43.9% | +47.9% | +5.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
31,433
RETURN
-10.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETC | -10.2% | -50.0% | -31.0% | 67 | 42% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETC)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -14.8% | 17,484 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -14.3% | 29,988 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.2% | 32,482 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.4% | 31,697 |
ETC Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 7.50 (-10.3%) |
| Target 1 | 10.00 (19.6%) |
| Target 2 | 11.00 (31.5%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 8.73 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 9.38 | +7.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 9.49 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 9.44 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 9.60 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 9.28 | -3.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 9.09 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 8.89 | -2.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 8.87 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | 8.05 | -9.2% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | 8.37 | |
| END | SELL | 8.36 | -0.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ETC at 8.36 against a 39.92 fifty two week high is basically a 79 percent drawdown and the call is still HOLD? respect the conviction but that 35k deployment plan needs a strong stomach
hashrate never left though. that is the whole thesis, the dead chain just keeps booting every cycle
hashrate staying is the only fundamental on this chain lol. no roadmap, no promises, just miners who refuse to leave. weirdly honest for 2026
plan itself is modest, 7.50 stop with targets at 10 and 11 off an 8.36 price. the scary number is the 42 percent win rate on 67 backtest trades
42 percent win rate with 1.6R and 2.6R targets off a 7.50 stop is mathematically fine tho. you only need like 35 percent hits at those payoffs to break even
ran the expectancy too, 42 percent at those R multiples is positive. the uncomfortable part is only 67 backtest trades, that sample is thin
Sanna, 67 trades is small but ETC has exactly two setups a year. You would need a decade of data to double it, thats just the asset.
grepnull the math checks but 42 percent means long drawdown stretches, most people quit in month three. holding is a mindset too i guess
strong stomach or long memory. etc has drawn down 80 percent like four separate times and still booted every cycle. the hold is priced for the patient, not the leveraged
held etc since the 2016 split. survives everything and rewards nobody. still holding though lol
etc hash rate never blinked through the -79% slide. dead chain jokes aside, miners voting with hardware is the only fundamental this thing has ever had
grizzled_miner fair, but miners follow price not conviction. hash rate is a lagging indicator on etc every single cycle
etc at 8.36 with a 52w high of 39.92 and the call is HOLD on a 35k plan? respect the conviction but thats a -79% bag
hans every hold rating on etc looks like this, check the 2022 and 2023 analyses. -79% drawdowns are literally the etc experience, the stop at 7.50 is the honest part
because etc only gives you like two setups a year on that chart, the hold ratings ARE the pattern lol
two setups a year is generous, one of them is always the halving echo lol
down 79% is exactly when a hold rating is honest. ratings that flip bullish after the pump are worthless
hold ratings on a -79% coin is just hopium with a spreadsheet lmao
their own backtest says the strategy lost 10 percent while buy and hold lost 50. the hold call is the system doing damage control, not hopium
their own numbers say the backtest lost 10 percent while holding lost 50. calling damage control hopium is a stretch, the spreadsheet is the whole point of a hold call
their own backtest beat holding by 40 points. calling that hopium is just refusing to read the table
spreading the 35k across staged entries instead of lump summing at 8.36 is the only sane way to touch etc here
holding etc since the 2016 fork drama. this analysis at least admits the risk instead of pretending its ethereum
8.36 feels grim until you remember etc printed 39.92 inside the last 52 weeks. the staged 35k plan with a 7.50 stop is way more honest than most altcoin analyses i read
a 42 percent win rate works until the 7.50 stop gets gapped through. etc wicks harder than most, size it like the stop can slip
aurel this, the may gap through 7.50 to a 7.05 fill is the exact failure mode. stops on etc are suggestions during liquidation cascades, size accordingly
aurel gapped stops killed my etc short in may, 7.50 slipped to 7.05 fill. size it at half whatever you think, the wicks are violent
67 backtest trades is honest of them to publish and thin at the same time. two setups a year means this system has basically one decision per season, the hold call is patience with a stop attached
etc moves when btc moves, just later and angrier. at 8.36 the hold call is basically dont sell the bottom, which is also the entire thesis