Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko Amundi Overnight Swap Fund (EUR) (EURSAFO)
2026-10-03 15:00 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.14
1.14
52W HIGH
1.18
1.18
DRAWDOWN
-3.6%
-3.6%
STAGE
Unknown
Unknown
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (18.6), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 43.2)
EURSAFO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.18
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 18.6 | ADX (14) | 43.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.17 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.14 | Resistance | 1.18 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.17%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EURSAFO | -2.8% | -2.0% | -2.2% | — |
| BTC | +9.7% | +35.1% | +9.7% | -2.0% |
| ETH | +6.1% | +45.4% | +27.0% | -4.8% |
| SOL | +17.6% | +66.5% | +40.7% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EURSAFO | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EURSAFO)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
EURSAFO Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.14 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-03 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
six bear factors on an overnight swap fund is kinda wild. like how do you even get bearish on something tracking the EUR overnight rate lol
you get bearish when the wrapper fee eats the carry, that is the entire thesis. at 1.14 against a 1.18 high the SELL signal is just arithmetic on the fee drag
the piece never prints the actual TER, which for an overnight wrapper is the only number that matters. a SELL without the fee line is half an analysis
arithmetic is right, 1.14 against a 1.18 high with the overnight rate flat means the wrapper is eating it. the SELL is a fee call dressed as a market call
@overnight_ox It is not about the rate itself, it is about the SELL signal for deploying fresh capital into a 30k portfolio when the trend system flags it. Capital preservation logic.
1 bull vs 6 bear and people will still ape in because “it is tokenized”. the AVOID tag is doing heavy lifting here
RSI at 18.6 on an overnight swap fund is wild. this is supposed to be the boring corner of a portfolio and it trades like a leveraged alt
kinda the point though. an overnight fund sitting 2% off its 52w high at 1.14 points to fees or structure issues, not market drama
RSI 18.6 there is a data artifact, one decent print and it snaps back. the ADX 43 on 0.17 percent ATR is the funnier part though
rsi 18 on a money market fund is genuinely a first for me. the feed must have hiccuped on a nav print
one stale NAV print and every oscillator on the chart screams oversold. garbage in, SELL out
agreed, RSI 18.6 on an overnight fund has to be a print artifact. funny how one bad NAV cascades through every oscillator and the system still prints a confident SELL
the missing TER also breaks every oscillator input, fees are pure deterministic drag. SELL on an overnight fund is a rounding error wearing a signal costume
agreed on the deterministic drag, at some point the spread to fair value pays you to hold though. 4 bps under nav is not that point yet
the NAV artifact theory fits, the 1.14 print came from the same batch as the fee accrual glitch. garbage oscillator inputs all the way down
ADX 43.2 on something with 0.17% daily ATR. the trend system is reading its own noise, that signal means nothing at this volatility
the 2y backtest showing 0 trades and 0% return is the most honest table ive seen all week. no fake win rate, just a shrug
0 trades 0 percent return is honest but also useless, a fixed-term deposit spreadsheet would have shown the same thing for free
a fixed deposit also doesnt give you same day liquidity in a token wrapper. the wrapper is the entire product, which is why the fee drag at 1.14 stings
zero trades is the only honest backtest. any system that finds trades in an overnight fund is trading its own fees
a SELL on an overnight fund is just the wrapper fee showing up inside the indicators. one line would have covered it
zero trades in two years of backtest and the system still prints a SELL is the most honest quant output possible. the AVOID tag is doing more for readers than any target price
a 30k portfolio allocating to an overnight swap fund at 1.14 with hidden fees is doing fixed deposit cosplay. the SELL tag is doing the reader a favor
1.14 vs a 1.18 high with 2 percent drift basically tells you the fee drag. the overnight rate is fine, the wrapper is the problem
a SELL on something yielding the overnight rate basically says the fees exceed the carry at this rate level. the trend system found a fancy way to say the wrapper costs too much