Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko Amundi Overnight Swap Fund (EUR) (EURSAFO)
2026-10-03 15:00 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.14
1.14
52W HIGH
1.18
1.18
DRAWDOWN
-3.6%
-3.6%
STAGE
Unknown
Unknown
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (18.6), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 43.2)
EURSAFO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.18
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Low: 1.14
Now: 1.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 18.6 | ADX (14) | 43.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.17 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.14 | Resistance | 1.18 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.17%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EURSAFO | -2.8% | -2.0% | -2.2% | — |
| BTC | +9.7% | +35.1% | +9.7% | -2.0% |
| ETH | +6.1% | +45.4% | +27.0% | -4.8% |
| SOL | +17.6% | +66.5% | +40.7% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EURSAFO | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EURSAFO)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.0% | 0 |
EURSAFO Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.14 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.4%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-03 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
six bear factors on an overnight swap fund is kinda wild. like how do you even get bearish on something tracking the EUR overnight rate lol
@overnight_ox It is not about the rate itself, it is about the SELL signal for deploying fresh capital into a 30k portfolio when the trend system flags it. Capital preservation logic.
1 bull vs 6 bear and people will still ape in because “it is tokenized”. the AVOID tag is doing heavy lifting here
RSI at 18.6 on an overnight swap fund is wild. this is supposed to be the boring corner of a portfolio and it trades like a leveraged alt
kinda the point though. an overnight fund sitting 2% off its 52w high at 1.14 points to fees or structure issues, not market drama
ADX 43.2 on something with 0.17% daily ATR. the trend system is reading its own noise, that signal means nothing at this volatility
the 2y backtest showing 0 trades and 0% return is the most honest table ive seen all week. no fake win rate, just a shrug